Friday 10 March 2017

The Lonesome West part 2

[Link to part 1]

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY


While deciding how to apportion the remaining undecided legislative assembly seats, I turned my attention to predicting the legislative council. My intent was to do those predictions first, then close out the post with my decision; unfortunately my resolution was a weak one little better than flipping a coin (though that is essentially what things come down to now that we do not include tossups in our predictions) so i thought that might prove a bit anticlimactic. So, here is the legislative assembly prediction as we left them last post:

Electorate Current Incumbent Prediction
Albany ALP ALP
Armadale ALP ALP
Balcatta LIB ALP
Baldivis ALP ALP
Bassendean ALP ALP
Bateman LIB LIB
Belmont LIB ALP
Bicton LIB ???
Bunbury LIB LIB
Burns Beach LIB ???
Butler ALP ALP
Cannington ALP ALP
Carine LIB LIB
Central Wheatbelt NAT NAT
Churchlands LIB LIB
Cockburn ALP ALP
Collie-Preston ALP ALP
Cottesloe LIB LIB
Darling Range LIB LIB
Dawesville LIB LIB
Forrestfield LIB ALP
Fremantle ALP ALP
Geraldton LIB LIB
Girrawheen ALP ALP
Hillarys LIB LIB
Jandakot LIB LIB
Joondalup LIB ???
Kalamunda LIB LIB
Kalgoorlie NAT NAT
Kimberley ALP ALP
Kingsley LIB LIB
Kwinana ALP ALP
Mandurah ALP ALP
Maylands ALP ALP
Midland ALP ALP
Mirrabooka ALP ALP
Moore NAT NAT
Morley LIB ALP
Mount Lawley LIB ALP
Murray-Wellington LIB LIB
Nedlands LIB LIB
North West Central NAT NAT
Perth LIB ALP
Pilbara NAT NAT
Riverton LIB LIB
Rockingham ALP ALP
Roe NAT NAT
Scarborough LIB LIB
South Perth LIB LIB
Southern River LIB ???
Swan Hills LIB ALP
Thornlie ALP ALP
Vasse LIB LIB
Victoria Park ALP ALP
Wanneroo LIB ???
Warnbro ALP ALP
Warren-Blackwood NAT NAT
West Swan ALP ALP
Willagee ALP ALP

There are five, currently Liberal seats as yet un-called. In order from most likely to remain with the LIBs to least, they are: Burns Beach, Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup and Bicton. Based on all the polling considered, Labor should get over 50% of the vote, but not 60%. Obviously these numbers will vary dramatically from seat to seat, but since we have no better solution presenting itself at short notice, 3 of these seats will be allocated to the ALP and two to the LIBs. This is not really based on any rational application of the figures, but it can't be any worse than flipping a coin, right? Based on the above order, the logical (and I use the word "logical" loosely) prediction is:

Electorate Current Incumbent Prediction
Albany ALP ALP
Armadale ALP ALP
Balcatta LIB ALP
Baldivis ALP ALP
Bassendean ALP ALP
Bateman LIB LIB
Belmont LIB ALP
Bicton LIB ALP
Bunbury LIB LIB
Burns Beach LIB LIB
Butler ALP ALP
Cannington ALP ALP
Carine LIB LIB
Central Wheatbelt NAT NAT
Churchlands LIB LIB
Cockburn ALP ALP
Collie-Preston ALP ALP
Cottesloe LIB LIB
Darling Range LIB LIB
Dawesville LIB LIB
Forrestfield LIB ALP
Fremantle ALP ALP
Geraldton LIB LIB
Girrawheen ALP ALP
Hillarys LIB LIB
Jandakot LIB LIB
Joondalup LIB ALP
Kalamunda LIB LIB
Kalgoorlie NAT NAT
Kimberley ALP ALP
Kingsley LIB LIB
Kwinana ALP ALP
Mandurah ALP ALP
Maylands ALP ALP
Midland ALP ALP
Mirrabooka ALP ALP
Moore NAT NAT
Morley LIB ALP
Mount Lawley LIB ALP
Murray-Wellington LIB LIB
Nedlands LIB LIB
North West Central NAT NAT
Perth LIB ALP
Pilbara NAT NAT
Riverton LIB LIB
Rockingham ALP ALP
Roe NAT NAT
Scarborough LIB LIB
South Perth LIB LIB
Southern River LIB ALP
Swan Hills LIB ALP
Thornlie ALP ALP
Vasse LIB LIB
Victoria Park ALP ALP
Wanneroo LIB LIB
Warnbro ALP ALP
Warren-Blackwood NAT NAT
West Swan ALP ALP
Willagee ALP ALP

This gives the ALP thirty two seats, and an outright majority. This seems like a much slimmer margin than many are predicting--maybe i should have given the ALP all the tossups and made it thirty four. We'll see.

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

Now to the LegCo. This is elected the same way we used to elect the Federal Senate; you know, the old one-above-the-line-or-all-below method that gave so much power to preference flows? Fortunately, as always, the illustrious Antony Green has produced his usual calculator to help calculate the flows for us based on a user-nominated primary vote that follows the above-the-line ticket.

While we have lots of polls available for the two-party contest, our best source of primary-vote numbers is this data from WAtoday. Putting this data into the calculator (where possible--the Nationals are not contesting the three metropolitan regions) gets us only so far, though. For all the parties listed as "other" I created three categories: "minor parties", "micro parties" and "independents".

I had to fudge the definitions of these groups a little, but basically minor parties are those that people are likely to have heard of before--mostly because they contest elections at various levels of government regularly. In this case they are: Australian Christians (ACP), Family First (FFP), Liberal Democrats (LDP), Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) and Socialist Alliance (SA).

Micro parties here are all other parties: Animal Justice Party (AJP), Daylight Saving Party (DSP), FLUORIDE FREE WA (FFW), Micro Business Party (MBP) and Flux The System! (FLX)

These definitions are subjective, and thus blurred. AJP and FLX could be counted as minor parties, and ACP and SA might be pushed into the micro party category. Also, I have included Julie Matheson in the independents despite having a party and thus, one assumes, larger reach.

Most parties at these levels receive between 0.1% and 2% of the primary vote. I thus gave every minor party a 2% share of the primary vote, micro parties 1% and independents 0.5%. I do not think the exact figures will matter too much, as the primary purpose is to follow the preference flows. As Antony Green has already calculated, FLUORIDE FREE WA is well enough positioned in the preference web that they could win a seat with a primary vote as low as 0.2%. Besides, that noble 5% who vote below the line will always make this game one of approximations. Then again,

Entering these values always pushed to total over 100%, though never by much, and the calculator will reduce the figures across the board (and complain that too many entries have the same figures entered). This may slightly compensate for the natural reduction of the primary vote in the upper houses relative to the lower resulting from a wider candidate pool.

These numbers entered and the calculations run, the results produced are:

EAST METROPOLITAN
1     Alanna Clohesy     WA Labor
2     Donna Faragher     Liberal Party
3     Samantha Rowe     WA Labor
4     Alyssa Hayden     Liberal Party
5     Tim Clifford     The Greens (WA)
6     John Watt     FLUORIDE FREE WA

NORTH METROPOLITAN
1     Alannah MacTiernan     WA Labor
2     Peter Collier     Liberal Party
3     Martin Pritchard     WA Labor
4     Michael Mischin     Liberal Party
5     Alison Xamon     The Greens (WA)
6     Henry Heng     Family First

SOUTH METROPOLITAN
1     Sue Ellery     WA Labor
2     Nick Goiran     Liberal Party
3     Kate Doust     WA Labor
4     Simon O'Brien     Liberal Party
5     Lynn MacLaren     The Greens (WA)
6     Wilson Tucker     Daylight Saving Party

AGRICULTURAL
1     Darren West     WA Labor
2     Jim Chown     Liberal Party
3     Laurie Graham     WA Labor
4     Steve Martin     Liberal Party
5     Rick Mazza     Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
6     Connor Whittle     Liberal Democrats

MINING AND PASTORAL
1     Stephen Dawson     WA Labor
2     Ken Baston     Liberal Party
3     Kyle McGinn     WA Labor
4     Mark Lewis     Liberal Party
5     Kai Shanks     Flux The System!
6     Robin Chapple     The Greens (WA)

SOUTH WEST
1     Sally Talbot     WA Labor
2     Steve Thomas     Liberal Party
3     Adele Farina     WA Labor
4     Wade De Campo     Liberal Party
5     Hayley Green     FLUORIDE FREE WA
6     Diane Evers     The Greens (WA)

The two ALP and two LIB candidates in each seat are constant as, on the figures used, they automatically reach 2 quotas on their primary vote. Interestingly, there is never enough carry-over in these numbers to grant a third seat. The Greens do very well, winning a seat in each region except Agricultural. The other parties that fall in are a mix of well-known, unsurprising nominations (Family First; Shooters, Fishers and Farmers; Lib Dems), a couple of self-explanatory single-issue parties (FLUORIDE FREE WA (twice) and Daylight Savings Party) and a wildcard that you always get in this preference-ticket system (Flux the System!--though they certainly know how to milk the current set up for every vote).

I think One Nation will actually do better than reported here and pick up some seats after a very high-profile campaign; I just don't know where and in place of whom. I also think the Nationals will pick up several seats, probably replacing the greens in some cases (particularly the non-metropolitan regions). However I don't know for sure where to slip these into the predictions, and both the NATs and the ONP are excluded from the lucrative preference-swapping quagmire than Glenn Druery (yes, he's back!) has produced. So for expediency, NAT and ONP are not included in the prediction.


While the final seat in each case is highly speculative (and in some of these cases I'd suggest the same is true of the second-last) what seems certain is that a LegCo cross-bench will hold the balance of power in WA after this weekend (though perhaps not the cross-bench suggested above, probably with more One-Nation elements and potentially smaller (and thus more powerful) if a few NATs show up).

Wednesday 8 March 2017

The Lonesome West

Barring a surprise decision in Queensland or Tasmania to chance the polls, WA is our only election this year and it has come about already.

If 2016 taught us anything with Brexit and the POTUS elections it is that polling cannot be trusted. Unfortunately I have neither the time nor creativity to work out another option before the weekend, so we will be using the tried-and-sometimes-true methods that rely on opinion polling. But first, the pendulum.

Divided along Coalition-ALP lines, the pendulum looks something identical to this:

Electorate Party Margin
Albany ALP 1.0%
Armadale ALP 9.6%
Balcatta LIB 7.1%
Baldivis ALP 6.4%
Bassendean ALP 5.1%
Bateman LIB 23.1%
Belmont LIB 1.0%
Bicton LIB 10.0%
Bunbury LIB 12.2%
Burns Beach LIB 11.3%
Butler ALP 1.0%
Cannington ALP 2.1%
Carine LIB 18.3%
Central Wheatbelt NAT 21.5%
Churchlands LIB 20.0%
Cockburn ALP 4.6%
Collie-Preston ALP -2.9%
Cottesloe LIB 21.1%
Darling Range LIB 13.1%
Dawesville LIB 12.7%
Forrestfield LIB 2.2%
Fremantle ALP 15.4%
Geraldton LIB 22.8%
Girrawheen ALP 2.8%
Hillarys LIB 16.0%
Jandakot LIB 18.3%
Joondalup LIB 10.4%
Kalamunda LIB 10.3%
Kalgoorlie NAT 16.5%
Kimberley ALP 5.1%
Kingsley LIB 14.0%
Kwinana ALP 4.3%
Mandurah ALP 7.7%
Maylands ALP 2.7%
Midland ALP 0.5%
Mirrabooka ALP 4.6%
Moore NAT 23.2%
Morley LIB 4.7%
Mount Lawley LIB 8.9%
Murray-Wellington LIB 12.0%
Nedlands LIB 19.1%
North West Central NAT 11.5%
Perth LIB 2.8%
Pilbara NAT 11.5%
Riverton LIB 12.7%
Rockingham ALP 13.2%
Roe NAT 27.6%
Scarborough LIB 17.3%
South Perth LIB 20.0%
Southern River LIB 10.9%
Swan Hills LIB 3.7%
Thornlie ALP 1.8%
Vasse LIB 21.2%
Victoria Park ALP 4.0%
Wanneroo LIB 11.0%
Warnbro ALP 10.6%
Warren-Blackwood NAT 15.7%
West Swan ALP -0.9%
Willagee ALP 2.5%
(Source: Antony Green's Election Blog)

However, it is important to note that six National Party seats (Central Wheatbelt, Kalgoorlie, Moore, North West Central, Roe and Warren-Blackwood) and one Liberal seat (Geraldton) are more closely contested within the Coalition than with the ALP:

Electorate Party Margin
Central Wheatbelt NAT 8.9%
Geraldton LIB 10.9%
Kalgoorlie NAT 3.2%
Moore NAT 5.9%
North West Central NAT 10.5%
Roe NAT 16.7%
Warren-Blackwood NAT 7.2%

This is a reasonably normal pattern in strong National-voting seats, since the two parties are similarly aligned and the base vote is enough to overcome the "spoiler effect" you would have in a first-past-the-post system (also aided by the absence of such a system). In all of these seats, the ALP is more than 10% behind the leading Coalition party, and in most cases more than 20%. It is usually safe to rule these seats as a Coalition win, but the swing in this election could be substantial enough to bring this into question and WA has the weakest LIB-NAT Coalition in the country (to the point that it is probably wrong to refer to them as such).

In 2013 the state-wide 2PP result was LIB 57.29% (presumably including, by preference flows, the vast majority of the NAT vote) against ALP 42.71%. To bring the closest of these seven seats (North West Central) over the line, the local swing must exceed 11.5%, or a result of LIB 45.79%, ALP 54.21%.

ReachTel's latest polling has the result at LIB 48-ALP 52, which is within the 3 percentage point margin of error of this result. Galaxy has this even worse for the Coalition at LIB 46-ALP 54 which is a rounding error away from colouring North West Central red. And "leaked" internal polling from the Liberal party (which may be skewed to scare LIB voters from straying too far) has the result at LIB 43-ALP 57 which is a swing of over 14 percentage points, within striking range of taking Kalgoorlie (margin vs ALP 16.5%) and Warren-Blackwood (margin vs ALP 15.7%) as well.

An (admittedly very brief) search for polling on the Nationals vs Liberals in WA was not very helpful, but my gut feeling is that the Nationals will widen the gap in these seats. The NAT vote in these seats is too big to be a protest vote that will be shepherded back to prioritising the LIBs by bad poll numbers; it is, instead, a genuine vote for an alternative party. Further the preference shenanigans in WA have been strange this cycle, with the LIBs preferencing One Nation above their Coalition partners and the NATs retaliating by preferencing the Greens, of all parties. I think the NAT voters will feel this betrayal more than the LIB voters, and this may shore up the NAT vote further. Therefore, I think we can call all 6 above NAT seats safe from the LIBs (with the possible exception of Kalgoorlie, which only became NAT last election and has a 3.2% margin against the LIBs, but then again has a stronger history with the ALP than either Coalition party).

Geraldton, however, probably has a strong enough lead to hold off a swing to the NATs, though historically has accepted ALP candidates quite well too.

This means, with the possible exception of a three-way race in Kalgoorlie, we can probably assume no real shift in seats (though perhaps a slight pro-NAT shift in raw numbers) between the Coalition seats.

The other spanner in the psephological workings in WA is, of course, the eternal phoenix that is the One Nation Party. Early polls suggested ONP might reach around 13% of the primary vote, though more recent data suggests this is around 8 or 9%. I am very cautious about all of these numbers as One Nation is the kind of out-there, Trump-style, media-grabbing anomaly that repeatedly threw us and polling companies off in 2017. However, even if ONP performs better than either of these estimates, it's only shot at a lower-house seat is to out-perform a major party and sweep up the preferences. On the latest data the Greens are doing better than ONP, and would naturally benefit from ALP preferences while the preference deal with the LIBs may have tarnished ONP with NAT voters (besides which, out-polling the NATs in the majority of seats would not net a huge pool of preferences to draw from in the first place). The only option, then, seems to be for the ONP to outperform the LIBs. And any seat where the LIBs are coming vaguely close to ONP's primary vote numbers would have to be a safe ALP seat to begin with--probably not good hunting grounds for ONP preferences. Thus, with caution and a healthy respect for the oft-written off right-wing media-loving outsiders of this world, I would suggest ONP is unlikely to win a lower house seat.

With no seats passing to ONP, no real change among Coalition parties and a Greens vote so low in most of the mining-dependent West that I haven't even really addressed it, the real contest seems to remain on the Coalition vs ALP scale. We can return to out initial pendulum, then.

Starting with the most extreme polling, the "leaked" Liberal polling, a swing of 14% against the Coalition parties would look like this:

Electorate Party Margin Polling Conclusion
Albany ALP 1.0% +14% 15.0%
Armadale ALP 9.6% +14% 23.6%
Balcatta LIB 7.1% -14% 6.9%
Baldivis ALP 6.4% +14% 20.4%
Bassendean ALP 5.1% +14% 19.1%
Bateman LIB 23.1% -14% 9.10%
Belmont LIB 1.0% -14% 13.0%
Bicton LIB 10.0% -14% 4.0%
Bunbury LIB 12.2% -14% 1.8%
Burns Beach LIB 11.3% -14% 2.7%
Butler ALP 1.0% +14% 15.0%
Cannington ALP 2.1% +14% 16.1%
Carine LIB 18.3% -14% 4.30%
Central Wheatbelt NAT 21.5% -14% 7.50%
Churchlands LIB 20.0% -14% 6.00%
Cockburn ALP 4.6% +14% 18.6%
Collie-Preston ALP -2.9% +14% 11.1%
Cottesloe LIB 21.1% -14% 7.10%
Darling Range LIB 13.1% -14% 0.9%
Dawesville LIB 12.7% -14% 1.3%
Forrestfield LIB 2.2% -14% 11.8%
Fremantle ALP 15.4% +14% 29.4%
Geraldton LIB 22.8% -14% 8.80%
Girrawheen ALP 2.8% +14% 16.8%
Hillarys LIB 16.0% -14% 2.00%
Jandakot LIB 18.3% -14% 4.30%
Joondalup LIB 10.4% -14% 3.6%
Kalamunda LIB 10.3% -14% 3.7%
Kalgoorlie NAT 16.5% -14% 2.50%
Kimberley ALP 5.1% +14% 19.1%
Kingsley LIB 14.0% -14% 0.00%
Kwinana ALP 4.3% +14% 18.3%
Mandurah ALP 7.7% +14% 21.7%
Maylands ALP 2.7% +14% 16.7%
Midland ALP 0.5% +14% 14.5%
Mirrabooka ALP 4.6% +14% 18.6%
Moore NAT 23.2% -14% 9.20%
Morley LIB 4.7% -14% 9.3%
Mount Lawley LIB 8.9% -14% 5.1%
Murray-Wellington LIB 12.0% -14% 2.0%
Nedlands LIB 19.1% -14% 5.10%
North West Central NAT 11.5% -14% 2.5%
Perth LIB 2.8% -14% 11.2%
Pilbara NAT 11.5% -14% 2.5%
Riverton LIB 12.7% -14% 1.3%
Rockingham ALP 13.2% +14% 27.2%
Roe NAT 27.6% -14% 13.60%
Scarborough LIB 17.3% -14% 3.30%
South Perth LIB 20.0% -14% 6.00%
Southern River LIB 10.9% -14% 3.1%
Swan Hills LIB 3.7% -14% 10.3%
Thornlie ALP 1.8% +14% 15.8%
Vasse LIB 21.2% -14% 7.20%
Victoria Park ALP 4.0% +14% 18.0%
Wanneroo LIB 11.0% -14% 3.0%
Warnbro ALP 10.6% +14% 24.6%
Warren-Blackwood NAT 15.7% -14% 1.70%
West Swan ALP -0.9% +14% 13.1%
Willagee ALP 2.5% +14% 16.5%

This gives the ALP 18 formerly LIB seats and two NAT seats; the 20 seats referred to in the article that is also the source of this polling data. Kingsley also remains in doubt. In reality, I am not sure the NAT seats of North West Central and Pilbara would suffer the full brunt of this swing as this data from WAtoday has the NATs actually increasing their primary vote to 6.4 (from 6.05 in 2013) separate to the LIB decline to 32.5 (from 47.1). Thus the swing may be only minor away from the NATs or even in their favour.

Under the Galaxy and ReachTel polling the NATs would retain both of these seats, and I am happy to call these safe retains for the NATs at this stage.

By comparison to the extreme swing of 14% explored above, the most mild is the ReachTel poll's suggested 9%, which would look like this:

Electorate Party Margin Polling Conclusion
Albany ALP 1.0% +9% 10.0%
Armadale ALP 9.6% +9% 18.6%
Balcatta LIB 7.1% -9% 1.9%
Baldivis ALP 6.4% +9% 15.4%
Bassendean ALP 5.1% +9% 14.1%
Bateman LIB 23.1% -9% 14.1%
Belmont LIB 1.0% -9% 8.0%
Bicton LIB 10.0% -9% 1.0%
Bunbury LIB 12.2% -9% 3.2%
Burns Beach LIB 11.3% -9% 2.3%
Butler ALP 1.0% +9% 10.0%
Cannington ALP 2.1% +9% 11.1%
Carine LIB 18.3% -9% 9.3%
Central Wheatbelt NAT 21.5% -9% 12.5%
Churchlands LIB 20.0% -9% 11.0%
Cockburn ALP 4.6% +9% 13.6%
Collie-Preston ALP -2.9% +9% 6.1%
Cottesloe LIB 21.1% -9% 12.1%
Darling Range LIB 13.1% -9% 4.1%
Dawesville LIB 12.7% -9% 3.7%
Forrestfield LIB 2.2% -9% 6.8%
Fremantle ALP 15.4% +9% 24.4%
Geraldton LIB 22.8% -9% 13.8%
Girrawheen ALP 2.8% +9% 11.8%
Hillarys LIB 16.0% -9% 7.0%
Jandakot LIB 18.3% -9% 9.3%
Joondalup LIB 10.4% -9% 1.4%
Kalamunda LIB 10.3% -9% 1.3%
Kalgoorlie NAT 16.5% -9% 7.5%
Kimberley ALP 5.1% +9% 14.1%
Kingsley LIB 14.0% -9% 5.0%
Kwinana ALP 4.3% +9% 13.3%
Mandurah ALP 7.7% +9% 16.7%
Maylands ALP 2.7% +9% 11.7%
Midland ALP 0.5% +9% 9.5%
Mirrabooka ALP 4.6% +9% 13.6%
Moore NAT 23.2% -9% 14.2%
Morley LIB 4.7% -9% 4.3%
Mount Lawley LIB 8.9% -9% 0.1%
Murray-Wellington LIB 12.0% -9% 3.0%
Nedlands LIB 19.1% -9% 10.1%
North West Central NAT 11.5% -9% 2.5%
Perth LIB 2.8% -9% 6.2%
Pilbara NAT 11.5% -9% 2.5%
Riverton LIB 12.7% -9% 3.7%
Rockingham ALP 13.2% +9% 22.2%
Roe NAT 27.6% -9% 18.6%
Scarborough LIB 17.3% -9% 8.3%
South Perth LIB 20.0% -9% 11.0%
Southern River LIB 10.9% -9% 1.9%
Swan Hills LIB 3.7% -9% 5.3%
Thornlie ALP 1.8% +9% 10.8%
Vasse LIB 21.2% -9% 12.2%
Victoria Park ALP 4.0% +9% 13.0%
Wanneroo LIB 11.0% -9% 2.0%
Warnbro ALP 10.6% +9% 19.6%
Warren-Blackwood NAT 15.7% -9% 6.7%
West Swan ALP -0.9% +9% 8.1%
Willagee ALP 2.5% +9% 11.5%


Let us then take these as the outer limits of possible results; and seat that is predicted identically in the two preceding tables can be called at this point, along with the previously mentioned retention of North West Central and Pilbara for the NATs. I have also given Kingsley to the LIBs as it is a tossup only under the "leaked" data, and Liberal under any more mild swing:




Electorate Current Incumbent “Leaked” Poll ReachTel Poll Prediction
Albany ALP 15.0% 10.0% ALP
Armadale ALP 23.6% 18.6% ALP
Balcatta LIB 6.9% 1.9% ALP
Baldivis ALP 20.4% 15.4% ALP
Bassendean ALP 19.1% 14.1% ALP
Bateman LIB 9.1% 14.1% LIB
Belmont LIB 13.0% 8.0% ALP
Bicton LIB 4.0% 1.0% ???
Bunbury LIB 1.8% 3.2% ???
Burns Beach LIB 2.7% 2.3% ???
Butler ALP 15.0% 10.0% ALP
Cannington ALP 16.1% 11.1% ALP
Carine LIB 4.3% 9.3% LIB
Central Wheatbelt NAT 7.5% 12.5% NAT
Churchlands LIB 6.0% 11.0% LIB
Cockburn ALP 18.6% 13.6% ALP
Collie-Preston ALP 11.1% 6.1% ALP
Cottesloe LIB 7.1% 12.1% LIB
Darling Range LIB 0.9% 4.1% ???
Dawesville LIB 1.3% 3.7% ???
Forrestfield LIB 11.8% 6.8% ALP
Fremantle ALP 29.4% 24.4% ALP
Geraldton LIB 8.8% 13.8% LIB
Girrawheen ALP 16.8% 11.8% ALP
Hillarys LIB 2.0% 7.0% LIB
Jandakot LIB 4.3% 9.3% LIB
Joondalup LIB 3.6% 1.4% ???
Kalamunda LIB 3.7% 1.3% ???
Kalgoorlie NAT 2.5% 7.5% NAT
Kimberley ALP 19.1% 14.1% ALP
Kingsley LIB 0.0% 5.0% LIB
Kwinana ALP 18.3% 13.3% ALP
Mandurah ALP 21.7% 16.7% ALP
Maylands ALP 16.7% 11.7% ALP
Midland ALP 14.5% 9.5% ALP
Mirrabooka ALP 18.6% 13.6% ALP
Moore NAT 9.2% 14.2% NAT
Morley LIB 9.3% 4.3% ALP
Mount Lawley LIB 5.1% 0.1% ALP
Murray-Wellington LIB 2.0% 3.0% ???
Nedlands LIB 5.1% 10.1% LIB
North West Central NAT 2.5% 2.5% NAT
Perth LIB 11.2% 6.2% ALP
Pilbara NAT 2.5% 2.5% NAT
Riverton LIB 1.3% 3.7% ???
Rockingham ALP 27.2% 22.2% ALP
Roe NAT 13.6% 18.6% NAT
Scarborough LIB 3.3% 8.3% LIB
South Perth LIB 6.0% 11.0% LIB
Southern River LIB 3.1% 1.9% ???
Swan Hills LIB 10.3% 5.3% ALP
Thornlie ALP 15.8% 10.8% ALP
Vasse LIB 7.2% 12.2% LIB
Victoria Park ALP 18.0% 13.0% ALP
Wanneroo LIB 3.0% 2.0% ???
Warnbro ALP 24.6% 19.6% ALP
Warren-Blackwood NAT 1.7% 6.7% NAT
West Swan ALP 13.1% 8.1% ALP
Willagee ALP 16.5% 11.5% ALP


Already things are looking bad for the Coalition; the ALP has 29 seats and the LIB-NATs have 19 (12 and 7 respectively) with 11 undecided. If the ALP wins any one of those 11, they have a majority. For those curious, the Galaxy poll predicts a swing of 11%, which broadly agrees with the ReachTel results, but puts Wanneroo as a tossup and gives Bicton, Joondalup, Kalamunda and Southern River to the ALP.

Since we don't allow ourselves tossups any more, history is as good a method as any for flipping the coin. Darling Range, has been a Coalition-held seat since being re-established 1977, and indeed through all of its historic incarnations, with one exception of a Liberal-turned-Independent from 1990-1993. Dawesville has been Liberal since it was founded in 1996. Kalamunda has only been around since 2008, with a historical predecessor from 1974 to 1989, but has always been Liberal in those periods. And Murray-Wellington (also called Murray in four of its previous incarnations) has been held by a Coalition party or their predecessors since 1904 with one brief ALP interruption from 1989 to 1993.


Electorate Current Incumbent Prediction
Albany ALP ALP
Armadale ALP ALP
Balcatta LIB ALP
Baldivis ALP ALP
Bassendean ALP ALP
Bateman LIB LIB
Belmont LIB ALP
Bicton LIB ???
Bunbury LIB ???
Burns Beach LIB ???
Butler ALP ALP
Cannington ALP ALP
Carine LIB LIB
Central Wheatbelt NAT NAT
Churchlands LIB LIB
Cockburn ALP ALP
Collie-Preston ALP ALP
Cottesloe LIB LIB
Darling Range LIB LIB
Dawesville LIB LIB
Forrestfield LIB ALP
Fremantle ALP ALP
Geraldton LIB LIB
Girrawheen ALP ALP
Hillarys LIB LIB
Jandakot LIB LIB
Joondalup LIB ???
Kalamunda LIB LIB
Kalgoorlie NAT NAT
Kimberley ALP ALP
Kingsley LIB LIB
Kwinana ALP ALP
Mandurah ALP ALP
Maylands ALP ALP
Midland ALP ALP
Mirrabooka ALP ALP
Moore NAT NAT
Morley LIB ALP
Mount Lawley LIB ALP
Murray-Wellington LIB LIB
Nedlands LIB LIB
North West Central NAT NAT
Perth LIB ALP
Pilbara NAT NAT
Riverton LIB ???
Rockingham ALP ALP
Roe NAT NAT
Scarborough LIB LIB
South Perth LIB LIB
Southern River LIB ???
Swan Hills LIB ALP
Thornlie ALP ALP
Vasse LIB LIB
Victoria Park ALP ALP
Wanneroo LIB ???
Warnbro ALP ALP
Warren-Blackwood NAT NAT
West Swan ALP ALP
Willagee ALP ALP


Unfortunately the other seats have very mixed histories, except Bicton and Burns Beach which are both new this cycle. (Bicton is formed from old portions of Alfred Cove and Bateman which were historically Liberal, and Fremantle and Willagee which were historically ALP; Burns Beach is formed from Butler--historically ALP--Ocean Reef--LIB--and Joondalup--mixed).

I will think about how best to break the remaining ties, and report back.