District Run-Down (2 of 6) - Western Australia

We continue our look at the seats of this election with the Western Australian electoral districts. I should stress that these are not predictions, merely the results of analysis. This may serve as a rough approximation of how a seat would be likely to fall if the polling were neck-and-neck and no other factors were at play -- a baseline of each seat's bias to serve as a starting point when we come to make our predictions.

If anyone should disagree with this analysis, feeling that a seat is safer or more marginal than reported here or that some vital factor independent of the current electoral cycle has not been accounted for, feel free (as always) to comment. This series of posts is not merely part of my own working out, it is intended as a point from which any interested person can begin to form their own predictions.

This is the second of six such posts, scheduled thusly:

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
June 22nd: Western Australia
June 29th: Victoria
July 6th: Queensland 
July 13th: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

Now, without further ado:

Western Australia:

Western Australia's economy is driven largely by the primary sector, specifically the extraction and processing of mineral and petroleum resources, although other chemical and agricultural exports are also major players (source). The state government is bicameral and based on the Westminster system, and has arguably been the strongest defender of state autonomy, with secession from the Federation a recurring theme in the state's political history. The lower house (Legeslative Assembly) contains 31 Liberal members, 21 Liberal and 7 Nationals. The upper house (Legislative Council) is held by 17 Liberal councillors, 11 Labor councillors, 5 Nationals, 2 Greens and 1 councillor from the Shooters and Fishers party.

The state contains 15 electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State Divisions: The state seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for Liberal, red for ALP, dark yellow for Nationals). The last state election was in 2013.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

Brand:

Incumbent: Gary Gray (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.33% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984-Present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Kwinana, part of Mandurah, Rockingham and Warnbro

Assessment: Stable, safe ALP (despite small margin and short history)

 

Canning:

Incumbent: Don Randall (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.19% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1961: Country Party
1961–1963: LIB
1963–1974: Country Party
1974–1983: LIB
1983–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2001: ALP
2001–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 5 Elections won (1949 - 1961) - Country Party, (1983-1996) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Armadale, part of Darling Range, Dawesville, part of Mandurah, part of Murray-Wellington and part of Wagin

Assessment: Variable, leaning to LIB

 

Cowan:

Incumbent: Luke Simpkins (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.29% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1993: ALP
1993–1998: LIB
1998–2007: ALP
2007–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 3 Elections won (1984–1993) - ALP, (1998–2007) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Girrawheen, Kingsley, part of Nollamara, part of Wanneroo and part of West Swan

Assessment: Volatile, tossup

 

Curtin:

Incumbent: Julie Bishop (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 16.19% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949-1996: LIB
1996-1998: IND
1998-Present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 19 Elections won (1949 - 1996) - LIB

State Divisions: Churchlands, part of Cottesloe, Nedlands, part of Perth and part of Scarborough

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

 

Durack:

Incumbent: Barry Haase (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.67% against ALP

Electoral History: 2010 - Present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Central Wheatbelt, part of Geraldton, part of Kalgoorlie, Kimberly, part of Moore, North West and part of Pilbara

Assessment: Tossup (insufficient data)
N.B.: Any assessment of Durack, which was formed last election, must be premature given only one piece of data.
The state divisions that make up Durack might indicate that a Nationals candidate would do well here. Though they received less than 18% of the primary vote in 2010, things look better for them since the 2013 state election. However, if I understand the Liberal-National agreement, the Nats will not challenge the seat since it has a Liberal Incumbent. However, this was not the case in O'Connor in 2010...

 

Forrest:

Incumbent: Nola Marino (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
16 Elections won (1972 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.74% against ALP

Electoral History: 1922–1943: Country Party
1943–1949: ALP
1949–1969: LIB
1969–1972: ALP
1972–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 16 Elections won (1972 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Blackwood-Stirling, Bunbury, Collie-Preston, part of Murray-Wellington and Vasse

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

 

Fremantle:

Incumbent: Melissa Parke (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
30 Elections won (1934 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.70% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1903: Free Trade Party
1903–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Western Australian Party**
1909–1913: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1913–1916: ALP
1913–1916: National Labor Party*
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1928: IND
1928–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 30 Elections won (1934 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions:  Part of Alfred Cove, Cockburn, part of Cottesloe, Fremantle, part of Jandakot and part of Willagee.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

 

Hasluck:

Incumbent: Ken Wyatt (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 0.57% against ALP

Electoral History: 2001–2004: ALP
2004–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 1 Election won (2001–2004) - ALP, (2004–2007) - LIB, (2007–2010) - ALP, (2010–present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Belmont, part of Cannington, part of Forrestfield, Gosnells, part of Kalamunda, part of Midland, part of Southern River and part of West Swan

Assessment: Tossup

 

Moore:

Incumbent: Mal Washer (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.19% against ALP
Electoral History: 1949–1958: Country Party
1958–1961: LIB
1961–1974: Country Party
1974–1983: LIB
1983–1990: ALP
1990–1995: LIB
1995–1998: IND
1998–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 5 Elections won (1961–1974) - Country Party, (1998 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Carine, Hillarys, Joondalup, part of Mindarie, Ocean Reef and part of Wanneroo

Assessment: Variable, safe LIB

 

O'Connor:

Incumbent: Tony Crook (NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.56% against LIB

Electoral History: 1980-2010: LIB
2010 - Present: NAT

Longest Electoral Run: 11 Elections won (1980 - 2010) - LIB

State Divisions: Albany, part of Blackwood-Stirling, part of Central Wheatbelt, Eyre, part of Kalgoorlie, part of Pilbara and part of Wagin

Assessment: Variable, leaning to NAT

 

Pearce:

Incumbent: Judi Moylan (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
8 Elections won (1990 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.86% against ALP

Electoral History: 1990-Present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Central Wheatbelt, part of Darling Range, part of Kalamunda, part of Midland, part of Mindarie, part of Moore, part of Swan Hills and part of West Swan

Assessment: Stable, safe LIB

 

Perth:

Incumbent: Stephen Smith (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
13 Elections won (1983 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.88% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1909: ALP
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1929: IND Nationalist***
1929–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1943: United Australia Party
1943–1955: ALP
1955–1969: LIB
1969–1975: ALP
1975–1983: LIB
1983–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 13 Elections won (1983 - Present) - ALP
(Including predecessors of LIB and aligned Independents as one party, there were also 13 Elections won (1909 - 1943))

State Divisions: Bassendean, Maylands, part of Morley, part of Mount Lawley and part of Perth

Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

 

Stirling:

Incumbent: Michael Keenan (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.55% against ALP

Electoral History: 1955–1958: ALP
1958–1961: LIB
1961–1972: ALP
1972–1983: LIB
1983–1993: ALP
1993–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 5 Elections won (1972–1983) - LIB

State Divisions: Balcatta, part of Carine, part of Girrawheen, part of Morley, part of Mount Lawley, part of Nollamara and part of Scarborough

Assessment: Variable, safe LIB

 

Swan:

Incumbent: Steve Irons (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.53% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1918: Nationalist Party
1918–1919: ALP
1919–1943: Country Party
1943–1943: IND Country Party***
1943–1946: ALP
1946–1949: Country Party
1949–1954: LIB
1954–1955: ALP
1955–1969: LIB
1969–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2007: ALP
2007–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1919 - 1943) - Country Party

State Divisions: Part of Belmont, part of Cannington, part of Riverton, South Perth and Victoria Park

Assessment: Volatile leaning to LIB

 

Tangney:

Incumbent: Dennis Jenson (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 12.32% against ALP

Electoral History: 1974–1975: ALP
1975–1977: LIB
1977–1977: Progress Party
1977–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Alfred Cove, Bateman, part of Jandakot, part of Riverton, part of Southern River and part of Willagee

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

*Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal party, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

**The Western Australian Party did not officially merge into the Commonwealth Liberal Party, but many of its members (including its only elected member in Fremantle) did join the CLP. The WA Party was formed from members of the Protectionist Party and Anti-Socialist Party, and thus can be seen as another subgroup of the predecessors of the modern Liberal Party. However, it is an anomaly, so I have included it under its official party colour (cyan) instead of Liberal blue.

***If you are confused by Independents who are also party affiliated, then you are in good company. To oversimplify, an Independent Labor candidate (for example) is an Independent who will by and large act as, and believes in the same principles as, a Labor candidate. 

For a really good explanation of the insanity that ensues, I recoment Dr Kevin Bonham's post What is an independent liberal from the Tasmanian LegCo elections this year, which contains a discussion about endorsed unendorsed candidates and unendorsed unendorsed candidates.