Friday 27 August 2010

Backdated - The House of Representitives II: A revaluation

Well, for all 0 of you keeping up to date with all this, you will be aware that my previous analysis assumed that the Seat of Denison would go to Labor. Now it looks like it will remain with the independant, and even I must accept the unlikely hood of that changing.
Also, for over 24 hours Hasluck has been considered Liberal, But WA Nationals' Tony Crook has indicated he will not necessarily side with the Liberals so I think the following can be concluded:

Labor: 72
Coalition: 72
Crossbench: 6

1 National (O'Connor)
1 Green (Melbourne)
4 Independents (Denison, Kennedy, Lyne, New England)

Now, the Green member has indicated he will support Labor, but I suspect he and Tony Crook will go whichever way the Independants go. The three united independents, however, will wait for the others to move first, to ensure a stable government. They will want a party with a majority of 74 at least.

If the Greens do side with Labor and the National with the Coalition, then whoever winns the independant from Denison will have the minimum 74. On the face of it, I would expect him to go to Labor, which would pull the other three that way too.

Still, it is too close to call really. And I think winning Hasluck bodes well for Liberal, so we shall see.

Monday 23 August 2010

Backdated - House of Representatives: Seat by Seat - as called by me

SOUTH AUSTRALIA:

Adelaide Australian Labor Party. ALP: 1
Barker Liberal Party. LNP: 1
Boothby Liberal Party. LNP: 2
Grey Liberal Party. LNP: 3
Hindmarsh Australian Labor Party. ALP: 2
Kingston Australian Labor Party. ALP: 3
Makin Australian Labor Party. ALP: 4
Mayo Liberal Party. LNP: 4
Port Adelaide Australian Labor Party. ALP: 5
Sturt Liberal Party. LNP: 5
Wakefield Australian Labor Party. ALP: 6

ALP: (+6) 6
LNP: (+5) 5

NEW SOUTH WALES:

Banks Australian Labor Party. ALP: 7
Barton Australian Labor Party. ALP: 8
Bennelong Liberal Party. LNP: 6
Berowra Liberal Party. LNP: 7
Blaxland Australian Labor Party. ALP: 9
Bradfield Liberal Party. LNP: 8
Calare The Nationals. LNP: 9
Charlton Australian Labor Party. ALP: 10
Chifley Australian Labor Party. ALP: 11
Cook Liberal Party. LNP: 10
Cowper The Nationals. LNP: 11
Cunningham Australian Labor Party. ALP: 12
Dobell Australian Labor Party. ALP: 13
Eden-Monaro Australian Labor Party. ALP: 14
Farrer Liberal Party. LNP: 12
Fowler Australian Labor Party. ALP: 15
Gilmore Liberal Party. LNP: 13
Grayndler Australian Labor Party. ALP: 16
Greenway Australian Labor Party. ALP: 17
Hughes Liberal Party. LNP: 14
Hume Liberal Party. LNP: 15
Hunter Australian Labor Party. ALP: 18
Kingsford Smith Australian Labor Party. ALP: 19
Lindsay Australian Labor Party. ALP: 20
Lyne Independent Robert "Rob" Oakeshott CROSS BENCHER
Macarthur Liberal Party. LNP: 16
Mackellar Liberal Party. LNP: 17
Macquarie Liberal Party. LNP: 18
McMahon Australian Labor Party. ALP: 21
Mitchell Liberal Party. LNP: 19
New England Independent Antony "Tony" Windsor CROSS BENCHER
Newcastle Australian Labor Party. ALP: 22
North Sydney Liberal Party. LNP: 20
Page Australian Labor Party. ALP: 23
Parkes The Nationals. LNP: 21
Parramatta Australian Labor Party. ALP: 24
Paterson Liberal Party. LNP: 22
Reid Australian Labor Party. ALP: 25
Richmond Australian Labor Party. ALP: 26
Riverina The Nationals. LNP: 23
Robertson Australian Labor Party. ALP: 27
Shortland Australian Labor Party. ALP: 28
Sydney Australian Labor Party. ALP: 29
Throsby Australian Labor Party. ALP: 30
Warringah Liberal Party. LNP: 24
Watson Australian Labor Party. ALP: 31
Wentworth Liberal Party. LNP: 25
Werriwa Australian Labor Party. ALP: 32

ALP: (+26) 32
LNP: (+20) 25

2 Crossbench MPs

VICTORIA:

Aston Liberal Party. LNP: 26
Ballarat Australian Labor Party. ALP: 33
Batman Australian Labor Party. ALP: 34
Bendigo Australian Labor Party. ALP: 35
Bruce Australian Labor Party. ALP: 36
Calwell Australian Labor Party. ALP: 37
Casey Liberal Party. LNP: 27
Chisholm Australian Labor Party. ALP: 38
Corangamite Australian Labor Party. ALP: 39
Corio Australian Labor Party. ALP: 40
Deakin Australian Labor Party. ALP: 41
Dunkley Liberal Party. LNP: 28
Flinders Liberal Party. LNP: 29
Gellibrand Australian Labor Party. ALP: 42
Gippsland The Nationals. LNP: 30
Goldstein Liberal Party. LNP: 31
Gorton Australian Labor Party. ALP: 43
Higgins Liberal Party. LNP: 32
Holt Australian Labor Party. ALP: 44
Hotham Australian Labor Party. ALP: 45
Indi Liberal Party. LNP: 33
Isaacs Australian Labor Party. ALP: 46
Jagajaga Australian Labor Party. ALP: 47
Kooyong Liberal Party. LNP: 34
La Trobe Australian Labor Party. ALP: 48
Lalor Australian Labor Party. ALP: 49
Mallee The Nationals. LNP: 35
Maribyrnong Australian Labor Party. ALP: 50
McEwen Australian Labor Party. ALP: 51
McMillan Liberal Party. LNP: 36
Melbourne The Greens CROSS BENCHER
Melbourne Ports Australian Labor Party. ALP: 52
Menzies Liberal Party. LNP: 37
Murray Liberal Party. LNP: 38
Scullin Australian Labor Party. ALP: 53
Wannon Liberal Party. LNP: 39
Wills Australian Labor Party. ALP: 54

ALP: (+22) 54
LNP: (+14) 39

3 Crossbench MPs

QUEENSLAND:

Blair Australian Labor Party. ALP: 55
Bonner Liberal National. LNP: 40
Bowman Liberal National. LNP: 41
Brisbane Liberal National. LNP: 42
Capricornia Australian Labor Party. ALP: 56
Dawson Liberal National. LNP: 43
Dickson Liberal National. LNP: 44
Fadden Liberal National. LNP: 45
Fairfax Liberal National. LNP: 46
Fisher Liberal National. LNP: 47
Flynn Liberal National. LNP: 48
Forde Liberal National. LNP: 49
Griffith Australian Labor Party. ALP: 57
Groom Liberal National. LNP: 50
Herbert Liberal National. LNP: 51
Hinkler Liberal National. LNP: 52
Kennedy Independent Robert "Bob" Katter CROSS BENCHER
Leichhardt Liberal National. LNP: 53
Lilley Australian Labor Party. ALP: 58
Longman Liberal National. LNP: 54
Maranoa Liberal National. LNP: 55
McPherson Liberal National. LNP: 56
Moncrieff Liberal National. LNP: 57
Moreton Australian Labor Party. ALP: 59
Oxley Australian Labor Party. ALP: 60
Petrie Australian Labor Party. ALP: 61
Rankin Australian Labor Party. ALP: 62
Ryan Liberal National. LNP: 58
Wide Bay Liberal National. LNP: 59
Wright Liberal National. LNP: 60

ALP: (+7) 62
LNP: (+21) 60

4 Crossbench MPs

WESTERN AUSTRALIA:

Brand Australian Labor Party. ALP: 63
Canning Liberal Party. LNP: 61
Cowan Liberal Party. LNP: 62
Curtin Liberal Party. LNP: 63
Durack Liberal Party. LNP: 64
Forrest Liberal Party. LNP: 65
Fremantle Australian Labor Party. ALP: 64
Hasluck IN DOUBT
Moore Liberal Party. LNP: 66
O'Connor The Nationals. LNP: 67
Pearce Liberal Party. LNP: 68
Perth Australian Labor Party. ALP: 65
Stirling Liberal Party. LNP: 69
Swan Liberal Party. LNP: 70
Tangney Liberal Party. LNP: 71

ALP: (+3) 65
LNP: (+11) 71

4 Crossbench MPs

TASMANIA:

Bass Australian Labor Party. ALP: 66
Braddon Australian Labor Party. ALP: 67
Denison Australian Labor Party. ALP: 68 *
Franklin Australian Labor Party. ALP: 69
Lyons Australian Labor Party. ALP: 70

ALP: (+5) 70
LNP: (+0) 71

4 Crossbench MPs

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY:

Canberra Australian Labor Party. ALP: 71
Fraser Australian Labor Party. ALP: 72

ALP: (+2) 72
LNP: (+0) 71

4 Crossbench MPs

NORTHERN TERRITORY:

Lingiari Australian Labor Party. ALP: 73
Solomon Country Liberal Party. LNP: 72

ALP: (+1) 73
LNP: (+1) 72

4 Crossbench MPs


IN DOUBT:

Hasluck, WA. **

Liberal by a margin of 317 votes (= 50.23%) TPP at 24/08/2010 2:22:33 PM.
Labor incumbant may swing more postal votes in their favour.
76.45% of the votes for the division of Hasluck have been counted.


CROSSBENCH:

Kennedy, QLD.
Independent Robert "Bob" Katter is returned.
Current margin of 4, 773 votes (= 68.40%) TPP at 24/08/2010 3:14:48 PM.
14.47% of the votes for the division of New England have been counted.

Lyne, NSW.
Independent Robert "Bob" Oakeshott has won Lyne from The Nationals.
Current margin of 18, 385 votes (= 62.38%) TPP at 24/08/2010 2:22:33 PM.
83.29% of the votes for the division of Lyne have been counted.

Melbourne, Vic.
The Green's Adam Bandt has won Melbourne from Australian Labor Party.
Current margin of 8, 018 votes (= 55.70%) TPP at 24/08/2010 3:14:48 PM.
84.09% of the votes for the division of New England have been counted.

New England, NSW.
Independent Antony "Tony" Windsor is returned.
Current margin of 34, 929 votes (= 71.61%) TPP at 24/08/2010 2:22:33 PM.
84.09% of the votes for the division of New England have been counted.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Denison is now considered to have gone to independent Andrew Wilkie.

** Hasluck is now almost certainly Liberal

These notes bring the numbers to:

ALP: 72
LNP: 73

5 Crossbench MPs

Backdated - The House of Representitives (and what the PsephologyKid saw there)

(24/08/2010: Careful reanalysis of the data has caused me to correct some statistical errors. The conclusion is the same - in Hasluck we trust - although with a slightly stronger leaning to a Labor win.)

It is still too close to determine the outcome of theelection with certainty. Boothby, Brisbane, Corangamite, Deakin, Denison, Dunkleyand Lindsay have all been on-and-off marginal's. The only permanent marginal isHasluck, which has been leaning to Liberal for some time now. Postal votestypically favour incumbents, and typically work against independents, to agreater degree than "normal" votes so this means counts so far are not necessarilya good indicator.

By my estimation, Labor wins 73, including Corangamite, Deakin,Denison* and probably Lindsay.

The Coalition (that's Liberals, Nationals, Liberal Nationalsand Country Liberals) has 72, including Brisbane, Boothby (due to Liberal incumbency),and most likely Dunkley, (also due to incumbency).

The only true seat "in doubt" in my mind is Hasluck is Liberal at this point by 382 votes (317 now), but with a Labor incumbent this could go eitherway.

That leaves 1 Green (Melbourne) and three independent candidates (Kennedy, Lyne and New England). I expect the Green will align with Labor to divide the House of Reps 74-72.

The three independents have agreed to move as a bloc. Although they will doubtless consider policy factors for their electorate and favourite issues, they all agree that stability is the most important thing. If Hasluck goes Labor the division is 75-72. With 150 seats, the winner is whoever controls 76 - a necessity as the winner must elect a speaker and still have a majority (75-74). For this reason, the independants are likely to side with labor and can afford two defections or by-elections.

Technically, they could place one of the opposition as a speaker. This would increase the leading party's majority on the floor, but undermine their control - a move suggested by the independents. Owning the speaker is a major advantage in question time, as anyone who has watched five minutes can tell. Far smarter would be to place one of the independants in that position. You loose some control, but it does not go directly to your opponent. One independant has already rulled out accepting this, though, so it is unlikely the others will accept either.

Far more interesting is if Hasluck remains with the Liberals. We could expect a couple of recounts, but if it is confirmed it would leave the Labor:Coalitlion ration at 1:1 (or 73:73 if you prefer). Whilst Labor could call on the Greens for a 74:73, it is still very close - one by-election or defector would bring it back. More worryingly, Labor does not see eye to eye with the Greens on every point, so the Greens' Adam Bandt could easily cross the floor or generally serve as a loose cannon.

The best move for Labor (or Liberal for that matter), in my humble opinion, is to offer the speakership to Adam Bandt (on the condition they win the majority, of course). This would secure the support of the Greens (giving them balance of power in the senate and control of the floor in the house), would leave labor all 73 of their own seats (74 inc. Hasluck) and win over the independents as the best shot as stable government 76:73 (or 77:72 with Hasluck) with a speaker already elected. It could, of course, backfire if Labor cannot secure Hasluck with a 73:76 in the Coalition's favour as the Green's speaker is not bound to the Labor party**. Add to that a former Labor government vs a Coalition leadership proven only through opposition, TPP vote in Labor's favour and (despite all being former Nationals members) the indepenents having had political rifts with the National Party, I would place my money – but only if I had to – on a Labor minority government.

Everyone has been watching the three independents for a hintof which way they will go. I doubt they have made any decisions yet. I would suggest watching Hasluck instead.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Denison is now considered Labor by most, with 13,136 to 11,102 TPP over independent Andrew WILKIE. Labor also has the advantages of incumbencyand opposing an independent in postal votes. I just want to gloat that I calledthat even before the undisputed god of psephology, Antony Green. ***

**Mr Bandt has indicated he will side with a Gillard Government (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/22/2990081.htm)

***Denison is given to Andrew Wilkie again, and I must admit it is looking more likely. Damn you, Antony Green. Still, I will maintain a Labor-win in the seat, and if I am wrong there is still a 50% chance he'll side with the Gillard goverment anyhow.

Sunday 22 August 2010

Backdated - Senate Calculations

(Chances are you don't care, even if you are looking at this page. Still, I enjoyed it.)

Assuming everyone in Australia voted above the line (and that, sadly, is almost accurate), and not counting ungrouped independants (for whom you MUST vote below the line), I have taken the senate statistics from the Australian Electoral Commission website and plugged them into Antony Green's senate calculator.

This allocates preferences based on the group tickets to give a prediction on the Australian Senate. If, as usual, > 95% of people voted above the line then this model will be > 95% accurate. Of the 76 seats in the senate, 36 carry over from 2007 (six from each state, none from either territory). Of the remaining 40, only 10 are in doubt, with 30 seats being known on first preferences alone (i.e. regardless of whether or not people voted above or below the line). The actual results will not be known for weeks, but this should be a reliable guide:

SOUTH AUSTRALIA:

Senators of 2010

1 Alex GALLACHER Australian Labor Party
2 Mary Jo FISHER Liberal Party
3 Anne McEWEN Australian Labor Party
4 Sean EDWARDS Liberal Party
5 Penny WRIGHT Australian Greens (in doubt)
6 David FAWCETT Liberal Party (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Don FARRELL Australian Labor Party
2 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
3 Nick XENOPHON Independent
4 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
5 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party
6 Sarah HANSON-YOUNG Australian Greens

NEW SOUTH WALES:

Senators of 2010

1 Concetta FIERRAVANTI-WELLS Liberal Party
2 John FAULKNER Australian Labor Party
3 William HEFFERNAN Liberal Party
4 Matthew THISTLETHWAITE Australian Labor Party
5 Fiona NASH The Nationals (in doubt)
6 Lee RHIANNON Australian Greens (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Mark ARBIB Australian Labor Party
2 Helen COONAN Liberal Party
3 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
4 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
5 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
6 Ursula STEPHENS Australian Labor Party

VICTORIA:

Senators of 2010

1 Kim John CARR Australian Labor Party
2 Michael RONALDSON Liberal Party
3 Richard DI NATALE Australian Greens
4 Stephen Michael CONROY Australian Labor Party
5 Bridget McKENZIE The Nationals
6 John MADIGAN DLP - Democratic Labor Party (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party
2 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party
3 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party
4 Helen KROGER Liberal Party
5 Scott RYAN Liberal Party
6 David FEENEY Australian Labor Party

QUEENSLAND:

Senators of 2010

1 George Henry BRANDIS Liberal National
2 Joe LUDWIG Australian Labor Party
3 Barnaby JOYCE Liberal National
4 Jan McLUCAS Australian Labor Party
5 Larissa WATERS Australian Greens (in doubt)
6 Brett MASON Liberal National (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Ian MACDONALD Liberal National
2 John HOGG Australian Labor Party
3 Sue BOYCE Liberal National
4 Claire MOORE Australian Labor Party
5 Ron BOSWELL Liberal National
6 Mark FURNER Australian Labor Party

WESTERN AUSTRALIA:

Senators of 2010

1 Mathias CORMANN Liberal Party
2 Chris EVANS Australian Labor Party
3 Chris BACK Liberal Party
4 Glenn STERLE Australian Labor Party
5 Judith ADAMS Liberal Party
6 Rachel SIEWERT Australian Greens (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party
2 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party
3 Alan EGGLESTON Liberal Party
4 Mark BISHOP Australian Labor Party
5 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party
6 Scott LUDLAM Australian Greens

TASMANIA:

Senators of 2010

1 Helen POLLEY Australian Labor Party
2 Eric ABETZ Liberal Party
3 Christine MILNE Australian Greens
4 Anne URQUHART Australian Labor Party
5 Stephen Shane PARRY Liberal Party
6 Lisa SINGH Australian Labor Party

Senators of 2007

1 Nick SHERRY Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Bob BROWN Australian Greens
4 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHYBY Liberal Party
6 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party (in doubt)

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY:

Senators of 2010

1 Kate Alexandra LUNDY Australian Labor Party
2 Gary HUMPHRIES Liberal Party (in doubt)

NORTHERN TERRITORY:

Senators of 2010

1 Nigel SCULLION Country Liberal Party
2 Trish CROSSIN Australian Labor Party

Backdated - Senate Layout

This is what the senate will look like based on my earlier predictions [Editor's note: this is the earliest electoral coverage by the PsephologyKid that the Infographinomicon is able to locate at this time]:

AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY: 31 Seats

01 Mark Arbib Australian Labor Party New South Wales
02 Doug Cameron Australian Labor Party New South Wales
03 Ursula Stephens Australian Labor Party New South Wales
04 John FAULKNER Australian Labor Party New South Wales
05 Matthew THISTLETHWAITE Australian Labor Party New South Wales
06 Jacinta Collins Australian Labor Party Victoria
07 Gavin Marshall Australian Labor Party Victoria
08 David Feeney Australian Labor Party Victoria
09 Kim John CARR Australian Labor Party Victoria
10 Stephen Michael CONROY Australian Labor Party Victoria
11 John Hogg Australian Labor Party Queensland
12 Claire Moore Australian Labor Party Queensland
13 Mark Furner Australian Labor Party Queensland
14 Joe LUDWIG Australian Labor Party Queensland
15 Jan McLUCAS Australian Labor Party Queensland
16 Louise Pratt Australian Labor Party Western Australia
17 Mark Bishop Australian Labor Party Western Australia
18 Chris EVANS Australian Labor Party Western Australia
19 Glenn STERLE Australian Labor Party Western Australia
20 Don Farrell Australian Labor Party South Australia
21 Penny Wong Australian Labor Party South Australia
22 Alex GALLACHER Australian Labor Party South Australia
23 Anne McEWEN Australian Labor Party South Australia
24 Nick Sherry Australian Labor Party Tasmania
25 Carol Brown Australian Labor Party Tasmania
26 Catryna Bilyk Australian Labor Party Tasmania
27 Helen POLLEY Australian Labor Party Tasmania
28 Anne URQUHART Australian Labor Party Tasmania
29 Lisa SINGH Australian Labor Party Tasmania (Unconfirmed)
30 Kate Alexandra LUNDY Australian Labor Party Australian Capital Territory
31 Trish CROSSIN Australian Labor Party Northern Territory

AUSTRALIAN GREENS: 9 Seats

32 Lee RHIANNON Australian Greens New South Wales (Unconfirmed)
33 Richard DI NATALE Australian Greens Victoria
34 Larissa WATERS Australian Greens Queensland (Unconfirmed)
35 Scott Ludlam Australian Greens Western Australia
36 Rachel SIEWERT Australian Greens Western Australia (Unconfirmed)
37 Sarah Hanson-Young Australian Greens South Australia
38 Penny WRIGHT Australian Greens South Australia (Unconfirmed)
39 Bob Brown Australian Greens Tasmania
40 Christine MILNE Australian Greens Tasmania

NICK XENOPHON, INDEPENDENT: 1 Seat

41 Nick Xenophon Independent South Australia

DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY: 1 Seat

42 John MADIGAN DLP - Democratic Labor Party Victoria (Unconfirmed)

LIBERAL/NATIONAL COALITION: 34 Seats

43 Helen Coonan Liberal Party New South Wales
44 John Williams The Nationals New South Wales
45 Marise Payne Liberal Party New South Wales
46 Concetta FIERRAVANTI-WELLS Liberal Party New South Wales
47 William HEFFERNAN Liberal Party New South Wales
48 Fiona NASH The Nationals New South Wales (Unconfirmed)
49 Mitch Fifield Liberal Party Victoria
50 Helen Kroger Liberal Party Victoria
51 Scott Ryan Liberal Party Victoria
52 Michael RONALDSON Liberal Party Victoria
53 Bridget McKENZIE The Nationals Victoria
54 Ian Macdonald Liberal National Queensland
55 Sue Boyce Liberal National Queensland
56 Ron Boswell Liberal National Queensland
57 George Henry BRANDIS Liberal National Queensland
58 Barnaby JOYCE Liberal National Queensland
59 Brett MASON Liberal National Queensland (Unconfirmed)
60 David Johnston Liberal Party Western Australia
61 Alan Eggleston Liberal Party Western Australia
62 Michaelia Cash Liberal Party Western Australia
63 Mathias CORMANN Liberal Party Western Australia
64 Chris BACK Liberal Party Western Australia
65 Judith ADAMS Liberal Party Western Australia
66 Cory Bernardi Liberal Party South Australia
67 Simon Birmingham Liberal Party South Australia
68 Mary Jo FISHER Liberal Party South Australia
69 Sean EDWARDS Liberal Party South Australia
70 David FAWCETT Liberal Party South Australia (Unconfirmed)
71 Richard Colbeck Liberal Party Tasmania
72 David Bushby Liberal Party Tasmania
73 Eric ABETZ Liberal Party Tasmania
74 Stephen Shane PARRY Liberal Party Tasmania
75 Gary HUMPHRIES Liberal Party Australian Capital Territory (Unconfirmed)
76 Nigel SCULLION Country Liberal Party Northern Territory

Decapitalised surnames indicate incumbant (i.e. carry-over) senators.