Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Mad Dogs and Englishmen

Hey hey hey!

I know, I know. I still haven’t analysed my results from my last post. I’ll get to it soon, I promise.

In the meantime, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be electing a new house of commons today, so I’m going to take a very superficial look at that right…now.

A Very Superficial Look at That


There are 650 seats. They are elected on a first-past-the-post system. Most polls are predicting a hung parliament.

A Less Superficial Look at That


The following methodology was experimental and, like all good experiments, failed catastrophically. Since the British elections are a special update, this will not be added to the running tally. I know this will be a bad result. Let’s wait and see how bad.

As a rough guide, I’ve made a list of all parties that either won each seat last election or came within 15% of that candidate’s votes. A swing of that magnitude is significantly greater than polling predicts nationally, but also arbitrary.

In many seats, there is only one contender. In fact, the Conservatives were the only ones in 254 seats, with the Democratic Unionist Party picking up another 7 for the right wing. The Liberal Democrats, who joined the Conservatives in a coalition, were the only real contenders in 39 seats. Labour (I’m still getting used to spelling that wrong, which is to say right, which is to say with a ‘u’) gets 203, not counting 15 Labour and Cooperative party seats. Another 15 were picked up by left-wing parties (Plaid Cymru - 3, Scottish National Party - 5, Sinn Fein -4 and Social Democratic and Labour Party - 3). And finally Down North/North Down (if that’s not a contradictory constituency name) is definitively Independent with Lady Sylvia Hermon holding the seat after leaving the Ulster Unionists before the last election. To my knowledge she is contesting again today.

That leaves 116 in doubt, and our tossups are (650/20=17.5) 17 in number.


Add captionSeats determined by having no second candidate within 15% of the vote for the successful candidate

Above seats, expressed as a proportion of the House of Commons

One of these unknowns, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, can be called for Sinn Fein, since their main contender – an Independent – will not run today. More whittling required.

More whittling


I’m keeping it simple due to time constraints, the fact that this is not something I regularly do, and because first past the post is stupid. I’m just going to look at the results for each party in 2005 and 2010 and calculate the swing. I’ll compare that to the national swing. If, for example, the swing from party A to B nationally is twice that in the constituency of Hypotheticalshire North, I’m going to assume Hypotheticalshire North has more rusted-on voters and that the swinging vote is half the national average. Therefore, I’ll halve the national polled swing between A and B and apply that to the 2010 data.

Or, for the cool kids:


where C is the two party* constituency result in year X (or predicted for 2015) and N is the national result in year X (or polled result for 2015).

I applied this to all seats with more a party* within the 15% margin of the winning party (the “competitive parties”). Check the data dump for Table 1.

Now this does lead to some absurdities – swings in excess of 100% being the most obvious. I’ve left these since this is a very rough approximation of a prediction, but it does point out that this algorithm lacks the nuance that it hopes to capture by looking at the size of swings in a seat.
However, the multiplier (the number by which the national swing is multiplied to get the constituency swing) sometimes dips below 0.

This would require the seat to move contrary to the rest of the nation. This is not impossible, but I do not believe in seats that are always contrary to the swing. For this reason negative multipliers are set to 0 in Table 2 (see Data dump)

Now, despite how rough and very, very flawed this is, let’s plug these results into the previous tables.

(Not Honestly a) Prediction



"Prediction"

Above seats as a proportion of the House of Commons. A second Conservative-LibDem Coalition would have a majority. A Labour-LibDem Coalition will not.

‘nuf said.

* Hampstead and Kilburn has three competitive parties.

Data Dump

Constituencies and Candidates Within 15% of the Leading Candidate 2010

Sorry for the length. There's no easy way to deal with 650 constituencies. Also, sorry about the colours. I didn't pick them. (Red and Purple? Seriously Labour and Co-operative party.)
 
 
 










 

Table 1

Calculations of swing (2005-2010) by constituency, as a portion of the national swing, the multiplier to approximate one from the other and the application of this to current polling. [Polling source ICM 3-6 May.]
 
 
 
 
 

Table 2

As per Table 1, but with all negative multipliers set to 0.
 
 
 
 
 



Tuesday, 24 March 2015

New South Wales Rush


Contrary to how I would have wished, we have only a few days until the NSW state election and I have yet to post anything substantial on the subject. So this is going to be another dense, intense and something-else-ense post.

Firstly the baseline. Original margins courtesy of Anthony Green, as per usual and adjusted for recent electoral boundary shifts etc. The swing is calculated at 8% away from the Coalition based on the 2PP result in 2011 (64.2:35.8 favouring the Coalition) and the latest polling from Roy Morgan (up to March 23, 56:44 favouring the Coalition).

This gives the Coalition 55 seats (LIB 38, NAT 17) and the ALP 34 with four tossups. Since there are 93 seats, the maximum tossups allowed on this blog are (93/20 = 4.65, rounded down to) four.
Now, after our previous success beating the benchmark based on past voting history, we’ll be playing around with those methods a little this time.

Firstly, because it’s not called the Infographinomicon for nothing, here’s a chart of the historical incumbency of all current seats (including past incarnations) since the abolition of multi-member seats in 1927:



And here’s a chart of the results for all elections since that date:

In both cases there are some strong supporters of the Liberal (e.g. Vaucluse), Labor (e.g. Lakemba) and National parties (e.g. Upper Hunter), which is a promising start for a system of prediction based on seat consistency.

Firstly, let’s try to quantify how consistently each seat supports a given party. In the below chart, the parties are simplified to Labor or Coalition (Liberal + National). Each time the seat voted for the currently ruling Coalition parties, we add 1 to their total. Each time they vote Labor we subtract 1. Independents and minor parties contribute nothing positive or negative to the total. This produces a very primitive profile in the total column where 0 is neutral (voting for the Coalition as often as the ALP), positive numbers indicate the strength of support for the Coalition and negative numbers indicate the strength of support for the Labor party.



However, since 1927 the Labor party has son more elections that the Coalition. This means any seat that has a 50-50 2PP history is actually slightly Coalition leaning by comparison with the state average. And, since polling is averaged across the state, this needs to be taken into account. For this reason the STATE column contains the value the seat would have held if it had voted with the rest of the state at each election during its period(s) of existence. The difference, in the DIF column, is simple calculated by subtracting the STATE benchmark from the seat’s TOTAL, giving the seat’s position relative to the general public.

This number can also be reached by doubling the INDEX. The INDEX is calculated in the following way: starting at 0 add one each time the seat voted for the Coalition against the trend and subtracting one when it voted for the ALP against the trend. The DIF is double the INDEX because voting, for example, for the Liberal Party when the state was predominantly Labor actually increases the DIF margin by two – the seat’s total increases by one while the state’s total decreases by one.

However, these values don’t take the length of time the seat has existed into account. Epping and Monaro both have an index of 3, having voted for the Coalition on three occasions more than for Labor when voting against the trend. However, because Epping has only contested four elections, this equates to a history of entirely Coalition victories, while Monaro has a much more evenly split history dating back to 1927.

To combat this, the next table provides the index, the maximum (or minimum, for Labor leaning seats) value the index could have reached, and the percentage of times the seat favoured a party against the trend (INDEX/MAX x 100%).



A PERCENT rating of 100% means the seat is a bastion that always votes for its preferred party, regardless of any other factor. This value can be diminished by voting for the “other” party, and this diminishing effect will be more significant if voting contrary to the general population. Thus a rating of 0% means either the seat always voted in line with the public (bellwether) or voted against the trend for one party as much as the other.

Also, although this is already captured in the PERCENT, the CONTRA rating is the number of times a seat voted against its “preferred” party contrary to the trend.

The PERCENT rating allows us to recognise what percentage of elections a seat has historically supported their “preferred party” in. If a seat has a 90% rating in favour of the Coalition parties, for example, it supports the coalition in all but the 10% most extreme of Labor-favouring elections. So now we need to calculate whether this coming election is in that 10%.

The easiest way would be to look at all the 2PP results of Labor-won elections and see if the polling suggests the ALP: Coalition ratio is in the top 10%. Easiest mathematically, that is. Unfortunately pre-90’s 2PP data is scarce. Primary vote data, however, is abundant and given the inaccuracy of using decades old data to interpret current attitudes will hopefully suffice. Besides which, as Anthony Green points out [http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/why-the-baird-government-is-vulnerable.html] the optional preferential voting system artificially inflates the 2PP vote. In only three elections since 1927 (1935, 1971 and 1995) has the winning party (and presumably 2PP leader) not been the leader of the primary vote (after combining all coalition votes and factoring Lang Labor into the ALP/NSW Labor vote).



Dividing these into Coalition- and Labor-led races, and ranking them from smallest to largest primary vote we can evenly divide the races into brackets of equal percentages:



Alternatively we can scale them by the leading party’s share of the Coalition/ALP primary votes, ignoring the others all together:



The latest polling (Roy Morgan 20-23 March) has the current primary vote at Coalition 45.5%, ALP 32.5%. A primary vote of 45.5 by the first scale is 30-40%. On the second scale, a 45.5/78.0 is 80-90%. So it’s not a particularly outstanding primary vote, but exceptional primary vote lead. Given that the majority of the “other” vote will eventually drain back to the Coalition or the ALP or exhaust, I’m more inclined to take the latter value. Besides which, ranking the elections by one party is somewhat lopsided. One might as well rank them by non-leading party’s primary vote:



Which puts this election in the 90-100% range.

Ruling all seats as Coalition unless retained by the ALP in > 80% of cases, treating the 80-90% range as tossups and 90%+ as ALP gives this unlikely prediction:



This gives the ALP 20 seats, the same as last election despite all polls indicating a significant recovery from. The difficulty in determining the bracket a current election falls in is, it seems, a major problem with this method.

What I will do, though, is look at the results after Saturday and work out where this election rates as compared to other elections and see if there is any obvious way to use this method in the future.
In the meantime, this chart compares the Coalition 2PP result for each seat with the state 2PP result for the last four elections. This is represented both as an absolute difference in percentage points (“Dif”) and as a percentage calculated as (Seat/State)-1*100%, where a positive value favours the Coalition and a negative value favours the ALP. Both scores are averaged over the four years, or as many years as data is included for.



Values are not recorded where the seat was not in existence (Balmain 2003, 1999; Castle Hill 2003, 1999; Cootamundra all years; Goulburn 2003, 1999; Holsworthy all years; Newtown all years; Oatley 2003, 1999; Prospect all years; Seven Hills all years; Shellharbour 1003, 1999; Summer Hill all years; Sydney 2003, 1999; Terrigal 2003, 1999; Wollondilly 2003, 1999), where the two party preferred count includes an independent (Barwon 2007; Cabramatta 1999; Charleston 2007; Dubbo all years; Goulburn 2007; Hawkesbury 2007; Hornsby 2011; Keira 1999; Lake Macquarie 2011, 2007; Londonderry 2003; Maitland 2007; Manly 2007, 2003, 1999; Newcastle 2007, Northern Tablelands 2011, 2007, 2003; Orange 2007; Pittwater 2007; Port Macquarie 2011; 2007; 2003; Shellharbour 2007; Sydney 2011, 2007; Tamworth all years; Willoughby 2007, 2003; Wollongong 2011, 2003) or minor party (Greens: Balmain 2011, 2007; Keira 2003; North Shore 2007; Vaucluse 2007)(One Nation: Cessnock 2003, 1999).

The idea of these two values is that they represent the lean from the state standard towards either party. Applying the average Dif and percentage to the baseline of 56% 2PP from the 20-23 March Roy Morgan poll gives the following:



By and large this correlates to the earlier prediction (shown in the COMPARISON column). Bathurst, Coogee, Londonderry and Riverstone are split on this method, favouring the Coalition based on the +DIF value and Labor on the +% score. These have been ruled as tossups.

Drummoyne, Heathcote, Mulgoa, Penrith and Port Stephens prefer the coalition under this method, rather than the ALP. Conversely, Strathfield favours the Labor party. The COMPARISON value in these seats never exceeds 50%, and should be ignored. Tossups under this method result from a lack of data. Where this arises from Independents or the seat not existing the baseline from the polling will be adopted. This leaves Balmain and Newton, where the COMPARISON is 100% ALP but that ignores the influence of the currently incumbent Greens, and Sydney which has been consistently Independent. In the last election (the 2012 by-election) Independent Alex Greenwich received almost 47.3% of the primary vote. This was, however, without ALP contest and may subsequently see Mr Greenwich’s primary vote eroded to the point that he does not make it onto the 2PP list. If he does, however, he should comfortable defeat the Liberal candidate. Similarly the Greens primary vote, based on the Roy Morgan polling, has increased from 10.3% to 12.0%. It is probable that the Greens will retain both seats.

The other consideration is Independents who may retain their seats. Normally these can be passed off as tossups, but there are too many this time: Lake Macquarie, Londonderry, Port Stephens, Swansea, Sydney, Terrigal, The Enterance and Wyong.

As stated, Sydney has a solid IND history. Lake Macquarie has gone to Greg Piper at the last two elections, and a third would be likely based on his 2011 primary vote of 43.7%. The other six independents were Liberal until a series of ICAC investigations led to them all resigning from the Liberal Party. These seats can be called based on the standard 2PP methodology:


Voila! LIB 35; NAT 16; ALP 34; GRN 2; IND 2; TOSSUP 4. Coalition Majority.

Oh, and here's an obligatory "State of the LegCo" chart. Coalition Majority expected there too. One day I'll find a reliable means of predicting the numbers for that...

Coalition ALP Greens CDP SFP

Monday, 16 February 2015

Summary (Davneport and Queensland State)

I’ll keep this quick and simple, because there isn’t a whole lot to analyse. We correctly predicted a Liberal victory in the Davenport by-election. So that’s nice, but doesn’t allow for much introspection.

In Queensland we made predictions for 85 of the 89 seats and got 75 correct. That’s 88.2%, which is a little lower than I’d usually like but it was an odd election, which was a correction for an even odder result previously.


Moreover, the standard polling got 74 of their 84, which is only 88.1%. So on the comparative scale we’re marginally ahead.


I was hoping to see which of the lengthy list of methods from the prediction bested the standard poll-and-pendulum approach and which didn’t, but in the end there were only 5 seats where one method beat the other.

Where we did well: Gladstone, Nicklin and Noosa. These are the three seats we did better than the standard method. Slightly unsatisfyingly, these were all tossups for the pendulum due to the existing 2PP margin not being an ALP v LNQ contest.

The three pendulum tossups we called, we called correctly. By contrast, the two of our tossups the pendulum called (Kallangur and Pumicestone) they got wrong. So we’re better at choosing our tossups. That’s something. Right?

So, how did we choose who to back in these tossups? Historical data.

In Nicklin, the Independent had been in since 1998 and had held off the Liberal National surge of 2012. Gladstone’s Independent was retiring, and had only ever been ALP prior to that.

Noosa was a little harder. But then Noosa was odd – a Coalition v Greens 2PP vote in 2012 but’s the seat high on my list of oddballs. The seat had had 6 Liberal/LibNat victories and 2 Labor wins. That’s a bias but not a conclusive one, especially with the anti-LNQ sentiment of recent Queensland politics.

Although we did discuss the problems with this approach – a strong ALP history for a seat created during the long line of recent ALP victories might be stalwart or bellwether – the polling did actually land slightly more LNQ-leaning than the historical trend, so if anything the seats would be more LNQ friendly than in the past.

Where we did badly: Chatsworth and Everton. Polling had both of these as LNQ wins, but we backed the ALP. Why? Historical data.

Both seats had only one ALP loss since 1977 (i.e. the 2012 abberation). However, throughout that time 1986 was the only election where Labor was not either:
gaining seats, or
the party that went on to govern Queensland.

Other seats in this position include: Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Bundaberg, Cairns, Cook, Ipswitch West, Lytton, Mackay, Murrumba, Nudgee, Rockhampton, Sandgate, South Brisbane and Woodridge. It’s tempting to say that the methodology was sound since we correctly picked all of those. Tempting, and wrong.

First, remove those with even longer-term ALP support (support when the ALP was not in favour). That leaves: Brisbane Central, Murrumba and Woodridge (and maybe, just maybe, Lytton and Rockhampton). And Brisbane Central was only introduced in 1977, so it’s hard to say whether or not this one would have been removed had it had a longer history.

Then scrap Woodridge, because that stayed with the ALP in 2012. That leaves us with Chatsworth and Everton wrong and Brisbane Central and Murrumba correct. 50:50. Compare that witth the poll-and-pendulum which got all four right.

So, while electoral history is very useful – in picking tossups at least – it needs to be tempered with a broader understanding of the state’s political slant. This was something we tried around this time way back in 2014 for the SA state election, and something we will return to for the NSW state election on March 28.

Hopefully I’ll have updated this blog’s allegedly running tally of correct predictions by then.

Sunday, 25 January 2015

Double or Nothing

Hey Paisanos! It's the Super Mar that double election prediction you've all be waiting for!

I'm going to get to Queensland in just a bit, but first a look at...

The Davenport By-Election

...the Davenport by-election. There are five candidates, all aligned to political parties (if you include the Democrats (which the electoral commission doesn't)).

The Candidates

Sam Duluk (LIB): Sam Duluk is an accountant who unsuccessfully challenged the late Bob Such in last election but did not contest the Fisher by-election last month. The Liberal party's "six priorities for Davenport" are:
  • Better local roads and transport
  • Fighting to lower our cost of living
  • More jobs, stronger economy
  • Fixing our schools and hospitals
  • Keeping our community safe
  • A greener, brighter environment
More information on how exactly they plan to achieve this can be found at www.samduluk.com.au/priorities. This is, of course, assuming the Labor majority government allows the Liberals to do these things in the first place.

Natasha Edmonds (FFP): A previous Family First candidate in this seat, Ms Edmonds she received 5.1% of the vote among a similar line-up of LIB, ALP and GRN candidates.

The Family First party is a former Christian Right party either responsibly distancing itself from it's religious origins or hiding them, depending on who you ask. Their pro-life and anti-same-sex-marriage positions are both well known and as one would expect. A few of their other policies, found here, are:

Family, which unsurprisingly for Family First, is a big priority, is supported through support for adult education, vocational training, support for stay-at-home parents and support for carers.

Climate Change (I want to quote directly here so I don't get accused of putting words in mouths where feet should be).
has been occurring since time immemorial. Many hundreds of eminent scientists have strongly criticised both the 'climate change doctrine' and the predictions made by the International Panel on Climate Change. Claims that 'there is a scientific consensus' and 'the science is settled' are not true. ... Carbon dioxide has had no discernible influence on the world's climate in the past and there is no reason to believe it should in the future.
I know, I know, it's a federal issue, but Family First put it on their state website and this does have potential impacts for the South Australian renewable energy sector, environmental concerns and future development plans.
 
Property Rights (I want to quote directly here, too, because I'm lazy and we still have three parties to get through).
provide the foundation on which many other rights and privileges are exercised. The progressive erosion of the rights of property owners through legislation, heritage listing, water restrictions, native vegetation, rising sea levels, zoning and court decisions is significantly diminishing the opportunities for self reliance.

Jeanie Walker (DEM): Ms Walker contested the Fisher by-election receiving 0.9% of the primary vote. The Democrats have struggled to get much support after their federal GST backflip in the Howard era robbed them of their campaign basis - honesty and integrity - and saw the Greens become the default third party instead (especially among left-wing voters, with FFP or PUP on the right). Their support has been so low they are no longer listed as a party by the federal or state electoral commissions.

I couldn't find a state-based source of Democrat policies, so you get more federal ones. I've tried to pick ones that reflect issues of high priority in the state's political dialogue:

Taxation, under the Democrats, would be a system "broadly based, progressive and based on capacity to pay". (Yeah, yeah, I know I'm quoting directly again. Live with it.) They oppose negative gearing, and see tax reform as a means to other political ends, e.g. promoting rural and regional based enterprises, promote the transition to more environmentally benign products and energy sources are encourage the use of public transport.

Transport - while we're on the topic - would be improved by upgrading the rail network, building high-capacity monorails, and making the cost of vehicle registration reflect the environmental footprint of the vehicles, all with the intention of encouraging public transport use and reducing green-house emissions.

Education, under the Democrats' policies, would include free and universally available child care for 3-4 year olds, free (eventually and/or ideally) university education and a requirement to pass year 12 before being eligible for a full drivers licence to increase student retention rates.

Mark Ward (ALP): voting for an ALP candidate has the added advantage that they will hold more sway in getting things done, securing more funding for local projects considering that they are in power, but the disadvantage that they are less likely to fight against government policies that negatively affect the area. Mr Ward is a member of the Mitcham City Council, where he had the benefit of rhyme when encouraging people to vote "Mark Ward for Park Ward".

The South Australian Labor Party website is down at the time of writing, so you are spared another list of policies. Until it's fixed, treat a vote for the ALP as a vote for the status quo.

EDIT: ALP website online on 29/01/2015

Not to be outdone by the Liberal Party's "six priorities for Davenport", the Labor Party has "Seven priorities for South Australia’s future". For more details on each follow the link, but the seven priorities are:
  1. Realising the benefits of the mining boom for all
  2. Every chance for every child
  3. Growing advanced manufacturing
  4. An affordable place to live
  5. Safe communities, healthy neighbourhoods
  6. Premium food and wine from our clean environment
  7. Creating a vibrant city

Jody Moate (GRN): We're having similar issues with the Greens website. I expect it's a server overload problem as the state checks in en masse prior to the by-election. So, you know, just ease up. I've got a blog to write and you election fiends are crashing the sites.

Conveniently, through the magic of Facebook, the Infographinomicon can bring you the Greens policies to the tune of Advance Australia Fair. (Policies in the second verse, around 0:40).

Predictions:

Last election the Liberal's won 51% of the primary vote, taking the seat before preferences were distributed. While there is no direct polling for the Davenport by-election available to me, I sense there is little appreciable movement. Nationally the trend is heading away from the Liberals, but a series of factors in SA - most notably the Gillman land deal - has cast a shadow over the House of Labor too.

That said, the minor parties don't look likely to do very well. The Fisher by-election may not be a very good source of public opinion given the unusual circumstances of Mr Such's legacy and the Woodyatt candidacy, so the Democrats may do better than 0.9%. That said, they'll fall well short of any real challenge and the FFP won't be far behind; it is ard to see them making a particularly massive improvement on last election's 5.1%.

If there is a shift away from the Libs it'll mostly go to Labor, not the Greens, so this'll be your typical ALP vs LIB race. That said, I expect Davenport has enough rusted-on Liberal voters to secure the seat comfortably for the opposition. The seat's electoral history is indicative of this:

Founded 1970
1970-1973 - Liberal and Country League
1973-Preset Liberal (but Independent Liberal briefly in 1985).

Predicted result - Liberal.


The Queensland State Election

Or, as the old (circa 2012) joke runs:

What's the Difference between a Mini-Bus and the Queensland Labor Party?

Queensland is always interesting electorally. For one thing, it doesn't have an upper house, which make the politics strange and the voting simple. For another, the Liberal and National parties are united as the liberal National Party (LNQ). But last year was particularly odd. Of the 89 seats, the Liberal National party won 76. That's over 85% of the seats. Odder still, Labor's share was only part of the remaining 13 - they won 9 of the seats (around 10%), with Katter's Australian party taking two and the last two going to Independents. In 15 of the seats held by the LibNats, the ALP was not even the runner up. Katter's Australian Party (KAP) came second in Beaudesert, Burdekin, Callide, Condamine, Gympie, Hinchinbrook, Lockyer, Nanango, Southern Downs and Thuringowa. Independents came second in Burnett, Maryborough, Nicklin and Warrego. The Greens came second in Noosa.

Normally when the greens come second it's in a left-wing seat where the coalition parties don't get a look in and it's just a question of how left-wing the seat ends up. in Noosa, the Liberal National party was still a serious contender, as evidenced by the fact it won, and the Greens still outperformed the ALP.

Such a thorough trouncing of a major party is almost unheard of in Australian politics. So what's the difference between a mini-bus and the Queensland Labor Party? The mini-bus has more seats.

However, the Liberal premier quickly squandered his popularity the moment he got into parliament - and I do mean into parliament, not into power, because he had not even been elected prior to the election where he lead the Libs to power.

Polls Apart


Drastic cost cutting and various other unpopular moves has the polling very close. The latest polling data has the Liberal party at 52% on two-party preferred counts, which is within the margin of error of being 50-50.

The March 2012 election had the 2PP vote split 62.8% LIB, 37.2% ALP. If the latest polling data is correct, we're looking at a 10.8% swing away from the Liberals. If this were uniform across the board, it would turn the pendulum from this:

Italics indicate retiring MPs
 
To this:
 

 
With LNQ 34, ALP 37 and 18 tossups. Normally this would be our baseline to compare predictions against. However, because my predictions are limited to (Number of Seats) x 5% (= 4.45 for Queensland, rounded to 4) I won't let the baseline carry so many wildcards.
 
The KAP is responsible for the bulk of cases where the 2PP vote is not LNQ v ALP. Although the movement is against the Liberals, the KAP primary vote has dropped almost two thirds based on the latest relevant polling (3.5% between Jan 16-18 compared to 11.5% in the 2012 election). Any seats the KAP failed to take last time will be harder than before, and any seat where the KAP was in second place, the ALP could not have been within 10.8% of taking the seat. So all LNQ wins against KAP will be called LNQ for the purpose of the baseline. Polling for independents is obviously difficult to come by, but it's hard to believe any second-place INDs would drastically increase their vote, especially with a more competitive ALP this time around, so these have been given to the LNQ too. The Greens vote has improved slightly, retaining Noosa as a tossup.
 
 

This leaves five tossups on the baseline, but I'll allow that because any further changes to the baseline begin to get very complicated and it will no longer reflect the "first glance" data we are trying to quantify and, ideally, beat.
 
I will, however, add a final note of caution about relying on polling. The phrasing of the questions, the format and the polling methodology can very drastically affect the outcome. Compare the "Better Premier" polling for this election for the last two years. (Source: Wikipedia)
 
 
At no point has Roy Morgan polling put Campbell Newman above 50% or Annastacia Palaszczuk below 50%. By contrast, Newspoll has never put Ms Palaszczuk over 35% or Mr Newman below 39%.
 
While most of the Newspoll data is earlier than the Roy Morgan polls, the consistency of the Oct-Dec Newspoll with all previous data, in the midst of equally consistent Roy Morgan polling, is far more likely to indicate methodological differences than actual trends in opinion.
 

Predictions:

Here's a diagram of each seat's history since the abolition of multiple-member seats before the 1912 election.
 
Red = ALP; Blue = LNQ (or predecessors); Pink = KAP; Grey = IND; Green (2008-2009) = GRN; Orange (1998-2002) = One Nation; Yellow (2012-2013) = PUP; Black (1944-1963) = North Queensland Labor (Later DLP)
And perhaps more relevantly, here are the results of each general election:
 
This allows us to work out which major party a seat normally voted for, and the strength of this support, calculated by (F-A)/T where F is the number of times they voted for that party, A is the number of times they voted for the 2PP opposition and T is the number of elections the seat was contested in. By-elections are ignored for simplicity. This gives a fidelity value between 0 (50-50 split of past elections) and 1 (always supports the same party). This differs from the simple win:loss ratio in that a Liberal seat that occasionally votes for an independent will have a higher fidelity score than one that occasionally votes for Labor.
 
 
The ALP holds two more seats than the LNQ in this count, and 12 more if we ignore the data from last election as an aberration. We can also weight the results by making each decade count for twice as much as the previous decade, and dividing by the number of elections weighted in the same way. This system ignores last election as it is the only election of the current decade AND is highly atypical. This is potentially catastrophic for any weighted system, giving the atypical result twice the weight of any other data.
 
 
So, I know we've come a long way round and I'd normally use a data dump for all of these tables, but they're crucial to the flow of this post, but here is the resulting data, with columns for seat fidelity with and without the 2012 data (the latter only being used for resolving tossups in the former data), the weighted fidelity, and a general summary of the seat's normal political leanings.
 
 
I only have 2PP results for the last four elections, but the average LNQ:ALP 2PP ratio is 50.35:49.65. Without 2012 the average ratio is 46.20:53.80. It is difficult to work out what a "typical" polling result would look like, but the 52:48 appears, if anything, to be more Liberal National leaning than normal. Let us then call anything on the above summary marked LNQ as safe, While we know anything that didn't leave ALP hands in 2012 is probably not going to any time soon and particularly not this election. Let's also keep the predictions as they are wherever the pendulum/baseline and above summary agree.
 
The predicted swing is in the 20% range, so let's keep any of the remaining spots where the margin is over 15% as a seat retained.
 
 
When comparing these predictions so far with the fidelity scores, we find we've contradicted a .72 unweighted fidelity for Bundaberg and a weighted fidelity of 1 in Mudgeeraba. Having looked closely at these instances, and in particular the Mudgeeraba issue, and concluded that the fidelity scores are not necessarily helpful; Mudgeeraba was ALP for four elections and LNQ in 2012 which gives it an unweighted (4-1)/5 = 0.6, but weighted value of 1 due to the exclusion of 2012 data. The margin, which had us call it LNQ, is significant (25.93% margin meaning a 75.93% share of the 2PP vote). The fidelity, however, only reflects a recent pattern of ALP favour in an era of strong ALP government.
 
The remaining gaps are filled first by using the pendulum where the fidelity scores give a tossup value, then considering each remaining seat in detail. Additionally, seats held by parties other than the LNQ and ALP are reconsidered (marked !!! in the above table).
 
Broadwater: Held by a margin of 11.29, close to the predicted swing, and with a mixed history but many Liberal victories during Labor's strong victories in the 90s, called LNQ.
Burleigh: Identical electoral history to Broadwater, but with a margin of 11.05, called LNQ.
Chatsworth: This seat's 13.94 margin belies a strong recent ALP history - 2012 being the first Liberal victory since the 70s. Called ALP.
Dalrymple: Held by KAP by a margin of 15.22 is hard to peg down. It is a respectable margin for any party, especially a minor one. I'm tempted to call this for KAP because the candidate won a by-election then held out against the LNQ, suggesting this was not just a 2012 aberration. However, there is no data on how consistent the decline in KAP support is. Tossup.
Everton: Like Chatsworth, the margin of 13.15 hides a AP legacy dating back to the 70s. Called ALP.
Gladstone: Held by an Independent who is retiring. Won by a margin over ALP despite the oddities of 2012, and the only election not won by an independent was ALP, so that's what I'm calling it.
Kallangur: 12.43 margin but historically following the general trend of ALP in the 90s flipping to LNQ in 2012. Probably LNQ again but calling this a tossup.
Mount Isa: KAP held by 10.04 since 2012, by a margin over the LNQ despite the recent ALP history of the seat. Could go any of three ways. Tossup.
Nicklin: Independent, the margin is only 4.88 over the LNQ but the candidate has maintained an independent tradition started in 1998, and the margin may have been narrowed by the LNQ support last election which will have waned since. Calling this IND.
Pumicestone: ALP history in this seat is a result of the party's dominance in the 20s and 2000s. The margin of 12.07 is pretty shaky though. Tossup.
 

Final Prediction:

 
That's LNQ 44, ALP 40, IND 1, TOSSUP 4. If the ALP gets the four tossups it's still a hung parliament, with both parties relying on IND support for government. In all probability the split could go either way, so a LNQ government is likely.