Friday, 1 July 2016

Senate Predictions

Previously we've had a lot of problems in predicting the Senate results. We found out last election that lower house polling is a very poor substitute for the upper house. The number of niche upper house parties means a lot more of the primary vote goes to "others". I was considering giving an arbitrary doubling to the "other" vote and progressively tweaking it (possibly as a function of number of parties running) to get a better approximation, but instead I've decided to try something else out.

The leader satisfaction polling shouldn't have any relevance to the Senate, yet I'm tempted to use it. It's initially counter-intuitive to use the satisfaction of a lower house member not directly elected to his (or her) position to model upper house voting, but it is not improbable that people who oppose a party in the lower house will do so in the upper house. The advantage of using the satisfaction data is that it is not confined to the two major parties and the few other "likely lads" the pollers include (GRN, NXT, PUP). A high dissatisfaction with both parties should presumably correlate to a higher "others" vote and vice versa.

Unfortunately I cannot find any satisfaction polling at a state or territory level. So I'm going to adjust the LIB and ALP primary senate votes from 2013 for each state by the satisfaction swings, and then eyeball the likely "others" vote.

Firstly, the 2pp + others vote from each state:

ACT 2013 Result
NSW 2013 Result
Coalition 34.44
Coalition 34.20
ALP 33.08
ALP 31.56
Others 32.48
Others 34.24





NT 2013 Result
Qld 2013 Result
Coalition 41.34
Coalition 41.39
ALP 32.75
ALP 28.52
Others 25.91
Others 30.09





SA 2013 Result
Tas 2013 Result
Liberal 27.45
Coalition 37.51
ALP 24.88
ALP 32.83
Others 47.67
Others 29.66





Vic 2013 Result
WA 2013 Result
Coalition 40.13
Liberal 39.20
ALP 32.45
ALP 26.59
Others 27.42
Others 46.82
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_results_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013

Now the satisfaction swing. In 2013, directly before the election, Rudd had a 33% approval rating and 58% disapproval, while Abbott had 44% approval and 50% disapproval. Currently, Turnbull has a 40% approval and 47% disapproval while Shorten has 36% approval and 51% disapproval.

In approval that's a 4 percentage point drop (9% drop) down for the Coalition and a 3 percentage point gain (up 9%) for the ALP. On disapproval its a 3pp drop for the Coalition (6%) and 7pp (12%) drop for Labor.

I'll be using approval, since that's what will lure people to put the major parties ahead in their primary vote. So we'll reduce the Coalition vote by 9% of their past share, and boost the ALP by the same, and calculate the other vote as the remainder:

ACT 2013 Result + Approval
NSW 2013 Result + Approval
Coalition 34.44 31.34
Coalition 34.20 31.12
ALP 33.08 36.06
ALP 31.56 34.40
Others 32.48 32.60
Others 34.24 34.48







NT 2013 Result + Approval
Qld 2013 Result + Approval
Coalition 41.34 37.62
Coalition 41.39 37.66
ALP 32.75 35.70
ALP 28.52 31.09
Others 25.91 26.68
Others 30.09 31.25







SA 2013 Result + Approval
Tas 2013 Result + Approval
Liberal 27.45 24.98
Coalition 37.51 34.13
ALP 24.88 27.12
ALP 32.83 35.78
Others 47.67 47.90
Others 29.66 30.08







Vic 2013 Result + Approval
WA 2013 Result + Approval
Coalition 40.13 36.52
Liberal 39.20 35.67
ALP 32.45 35.37
ALP 26.59 28.98
Others 27.42 28.11
Others 46.82 35.34

Because this is a double disillusion election, the quota is a reduced 7.69% for the states and the usual 33% in the territories. So on that prediction the senate would get the following quota allocations:

ACT 2013 Result Quotas
NSW 2013 Result Quotas
Coalition 34.44 0.94
Coalition 34.20 4.05
ALP 33.08 1.08
ALP 31.56 4.47
Others 32.48 0.98
Others 34.24 4.48







NT 2013 Result Quotas
Qld 2013 Result Quotas
Coalition 41.34 1.13
Coalition 41.39 4.90
ALP 32.75 1.07
ALP 28.52 4.04
Others 25.91 0.80
Others 30.09 4.06







SA 2013 Result Quotas
Tas 2013 Result Quotas
Liberal 27.45 3.25
Coalition 37.51 4.44
ALP 24.88 3.53
ALP 32.83 4.65
Others 47.67 6.23
Others 29.66 3.91







Vic 2013 Result Quotas
WA 2013 Result Quotas
Coalition 40.13 4.75
Liberal 39.20 4.64
ALP 32.45 4.60
ALP 26.59 3.77
Others 27.42 3.66
Others 46.82 4.60

And the senate would look like this on the primary vote:
ACT




ALP





NSW ALP



LIB
NT




ALP LIB




Qld ALP



LNQ
SA ALP





LIB
Tas ALP



LIB
Vic ALP



LIB
WA ALP




LIB

Now I doubt the "others" in the ACT are organised enough for any one of them to out poll the coalition, so the last seat in the ACT will be blue, too. Last election no party got more than one candidate beyond their primary quotas in, and sometimes the major parties didn't even get that. In a double dissolution maybe you'd get two, but then the "others" might get in a quick seat too. So lets limit it as a max of one extra seat. There's no easy rule to this - in WA the ALP needed just 2% of the states preferences to gain an second seat and didn't, while in NSW the coalition needed 8.66% and got it. As a general rule though, is seems if a candidate needs more than 3pp to meet a quota they'll fail in a normal election. That's about a quarter of a quota in a normal election, or half in a DD. I'm not sure which to use. So lets hand out seats to anyone who got X.66% of a quota:

ACT




ALP LIB




NSW ALP



LIB
NT




ALP LIB




Qld ALP


LNQ
SA ALP





LIB
Tas ALP


LIB
Vic ALP


LIB
WA ALP



LIB

Now first pick for an "other" in every state except perhaps SA and QLD has to be a Greens. In SA it's be NXT who out-polled the greens (and ALP) in 2013, and in QLD it's either PUP (who also out-polled the greens), or KAP replacing them. Or former PUP Glenn Lazarus. Or Pauline Hanson. Queensland is just not used to this whole upper house shtick is it? I'm backing PUP doing badly given Palmers' press and losing Lazarus to the Glenn Lazarus Team. I suspect one nation will do poorly on preferences, with most supporters putting them in as a primary and most others ignoring them completely. On the tossup, I'll give a seat to GLT.

Even then, with the reduced quota, the Greens can probably primary vote their way into one seat in all of these, and get damn close to 2 in Vic and Tas, so we'll grant them too. Xenophon almost primaried a double quota in 2013 and has been advertising hard in SA. Plus the general dissatisfaction in the major parties should guarantee two seats. And Family First can normally count on getting Bob Day in, so I'll grant that too.

I'm prepared to leave one seat unknown in each state because even without voting tickets the last one will be a random matter of dropping out, overflow quotas and preferences shooting around like ping-pong balls. So that still leaves 2 seats in NSW, 1 in SA and 2 in WA.

WA is conservative, and the NATs run separate to the LIBS. After the two majors and the greens the NATS came fourth in 2013, but the greens still out-polled them, so I'm thinking another green and a NAT? But then maybe a centrist like NXT or PUP could do well there too. What the heck. NAT and PUP it is.

In NSW David Leyonhjelm should have some traction, so the LDP can get a seat. They did out-poll the greens in 2013 but I can't see them getting 2 seats. Both should just get their quota and have so few remainders they fizzle out. PUP was the next biggest in 2013, but other good bets would be Derryn Hinch for publicity, Shooters and Fishers who seem to pull of surprises now and then, Sex party if the overflow is vry left and Rise Up Australia if its very right. Eeny, meeny, miny... PUP.

 
ACT




ALP LIB




NSW ALP GRN PUP LDP
LIB
NT




ALP LIB




Qld ALP GRN GLT
LNQ
SA ALP GRN NXT NXT
FFP
LIB
Tas ALP GRN GRN
LIB
Vic ALP GRN GRN
LIB
WA ALP GRN
PUP NAT LIB

The last spot in each state, as I said, I'd leave as tossups for the madness that is the minor preference flows. But for a nominal indication I'll give it to a major party, since we now have exhausting tickets and public media is probably going to mean one of them gets a mark somewhere even in the shortest of lists. I'll allocate it based on which of the parties is closest to an extra quota, with some exceptions.

In SA there are two seats to fill and the major parties have their smallest representations of any state. It is true Xenophon has been undercutting them for ages, but with his two seats allocated I'll give them both a seat.

In Queensland the LNQ got it's 5th seat by rounding up its quota and the ALP only just scraped their 4th on primaries. I could see a minor party getting in here instead, with both majors exhausted. It's got to be PUP, KAP or One Nation, and since I was tossing up between KAP and GLT before, KAP can have the position nominally.

Tasmania's double Greens are ambitions, and Jacqui Lambie is not to be underestimated, even if she can be the Donald Trump of Tasmania at times. The ALP has probably maxed out at 5 and the Libs getting a 5th seems unlikely to me, so JLN can have that last seat.

ACT




ALP LIB




NSW ALP GRN PUP LDP LIB
NT




ALP LIB




Qld ALP GRN GLT KAP LNQ
SA ALP GRN NXT NXT FFP LIB
Tas ALP GRN GRN JLN LIB
Vic ALP GRN GRN LIB
WA ALP GRN PUP NAT LIB

That comes to:
Coalition (LIB, NAT & NLQ): 30
ALP: 29
Cross-bench: 17

For comparison, after the 2013 election it was:
Coalition: 33
ALP: 25
Cross-bench: 18

So, that's my highly dubious guess, with no real faith in the reliability of my tossup fill-ins.

Thursday, 30 June 2016

Predictions! Predictions!

So, this election campaign has been a long one, and somehow I've managed to deliver basically nothing. At the very least, I need to put out some predictions -- the other tweaking and experimental stuff will keep for a while.

I'm changing things up, this year, though. I'm not keeping track of my success rate any more - I'm enjoying dabbling in too many unique votes like Brexit, and keep running predictions that "don't count". So screw the tally, lets just go for accuracy as best we can. And that means no more tossups. I'll take a punt on everything now.

Lets start with the basic margin-swing analysis. Here are all of the seats and their margins:

Adelaide ALP 4.0%
Aston LIB 8.2%
Ballarat ALP 4.9%
Banks LIB 2.6%
Barker LIB 16.6%
Barton ALP 4.4%
Bass LIB 4.0%
Batman ALP 10.6% v GRN
Bendigo ALP 1.3%
Bennelong LIB 7.8%
Berowra LIB 19.0%
Blair ALP 5.3%
Blaxland ALP 11.2%
Bonner LNP 3.7%
Boothby LIB 7.1%
Bowman LNP 8.9%
Braddon LIB 2.6%
Bradfield LIB 20.9%
Brand ALP 3.7%
Brisbane LNP 4.3%
Bruce ALP 1.8%
Burt LIB 6.1%
Calare NAT 15.0%
Calwell ALP 13.9%
Canberra ALP 7.4%
Canning LIB 11.3%
Capricornia LNP 0.8%
Casey LIB 7.2%
Chifley ALP 10.9%
Chisholm ALP 1.6%
Cook LIB 15.8%
Corangamite LIB 3.9%
Corio ALP 7.8%
Cowan LIB 4.5%
Cowper NAT 13.2%
Cunningham ALP 11.3%
Curtin LIB 18.2%
Dawson LNP 7.6%
Deakin LIB 3.2%
Denison IND 15.5% v ALP
Dickson LNP 6.7%
Dobell ALP 0.2%
Dunkley LIB 5.6%
Durack LIB 3.9% v NAT
Eden-Monaro LIB 2.9%
Fadden LNP 14.4%
Fairfax PUP 0.03% v LNP
Farrer LIB 21.8%
Fenner ALP 12.5%
Fisher LNP 9.8%
Flinders LIB 11.8%
Flynn LNP 6.5%
Forde LNP 4.4%
Forrest LIB 14.0%
Fowler ALP 12.9%
Franklin ALP 5.1%
Fremantle ALP 5.4%
Gellibrand ALP 16.5%
Gilmore LIB 3.8%
Gippsland NAT 15.8%
Goldstein LIB 11.0%
Gorton ALP 16.1%
Grayndler ALP 18.8%
Greenway ALP 3.0%
Grey LIB 13.5%
Griffith ALP 3.0%
Groom LNP 16.5%
Hasluck LIB 6.0%
Herbert LNP 6.2%
Higgins LIB 9.9%
Hindmarsh LIB 1.9%
Hinkler LNP 9.0%
Holt ALP 9.1%
Hotham ALP 7.3%
Hughes LIB 11.8%
Hume LIB 13.6%
Hunter ALP 5.7%
Indi IND 0.3% v LIB
Isaacs ALP 3.9%
Jagajaga ALP 3.1%
Kennedy KAP 2.2% v LNP
Kingsford Smith ALP 2.7%
Kingston ALP 9.7%
Kooyong LIB 11.1%
La Trobe LIB 4.0%
Lalor ALP 12.2%
Leichhardt LNP 5.7%
Lilley ALP 1.3%
Lindsay LIB 3.0%
Lingiari ALP 0.9%
Longman LNP 6.9%
Lyne NAT 13.6%
Lyons LIB 1.2%
Macarthur LIB 3.3%
Mackellar LIB 18.8%
Macquarie LIB 4.5%
Makin ALP 5.1%
Mallee NAT 23.7%
Maranoa LNP 22.3%
Maribyrnong ALP 11.4%
Mayo LIB 12.5%
McEwen ALP 0.2%
McMahon ALP 4.6%
McMillan LIB 11.8%
McPherson LNP 13.0%
Melbourne GRN 5.3% v ALP
Melbourne Ports ALP 3.6%
Menzies LIB 14.5%
Mitchell LIB 21.4%
Moncrieff LNP 18.0%
Moore LIB 12.4%
Moreton ALP 1.6%
Murray LIB 20.9%
New England NAT 19.6%
Newcastle ALP 9.4%
North Sydney LIB 15.7%
O'Connor LIB 0.9% v NAT
Oxley ALP 3.8%
Page NAT 3.1%
Parkes NAT 19.9%
Parramatta ALP 1.3%
Paterson ALP 0.4%
Pearce LIB 9.3%
Perth ALP 2.2%
Petrie LNP 0.5%
Port Adelaide ALP 14.0%
Rankin ALP 4.8%
Reid LIB 3.4%
Richmond ALP 1.6%
Riverina NAT 19.0%
Robertson LIB 3.1%
Ryan LNP 8.5%
Scullin ALP 14.4%
Shortland ALP 7.4%
Solomon CLP 1.4%
Stirling LIB 9.0%
Sturt LIB 10.1%
Swan LIB 7.3%
Sydney ALP 12.9%
Tangney LIB 13.0%
Wakefield ALP 3.4%
Wannon LIB 10.1%
Warringah LIB 15.3%
Watson ALP 8.9%
Wentworth LIB 18.9%
Werriwa ALP 6.5%
Whitlam ALP 6.9%
Wide Bay LNP 13.2%
Wills ALP 15.2% v GRN
Wright LNP 11.8%
Source: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/03/2016-federal-election-pendulum-update.html

Now, the latest 2pp polling is:

Coalition: 51%
ALP: 49%

Compared to the actual results in 2013, which were:

Coalition: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

That makes a 2.5% swing to the ALP, which applied to all seats gives:
Adelaide ALP 4.0% 6.5%
Aston LIB 8.2% 5.7%
Ballarat ALP 4.9% 7.4%
Banks LIB 2.6% 0.1%
Barker LIB 16.6% 14.1%
Barton ALP 4.4% 6.9%
Bass LIB 4.0% 1.5%
Batman ALP 10.6% v GRN N/A
Bendigo ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Bennelong LIB 7.8% 5.3%
Berowra LIB 19.0% 16.5%
Blair ALP 5.3% 7.8%
Blaxland ALP 11.2% 13.7%
Bonner LNP 3.7% 1.2%
Boothby LIB 7.1% 4.6%
Bowman LNP 8.9% 6.4%
Braddon LIB 2.6% 0.1%
Bradfield LIB 20.9% 18.4%
Brand ALP 3.7% 6.2%
Brisbane LNP 4.3% 1.8%
Bruce ALP 1.8% 4.3%
Burt LIB 6.1% 3.6%
Calare NAT 15.0% 12.5%
Calwell ALP 13.9% 16.4%
Canberra ALP 7.4% 9.9%
Canning LIB 11.3% 8.8%
Capricornia LNP 0.8% 1.7%
Casey LIB 7.2% 4.7%
Chifley ALP 10.9% 13.4%
Chisholm ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Cook LIB 15.8% 13.3%
Corangamite LIB 3.9% 1.4%
Corio ALP 7.8% 10.3%
Cowan LIB 4.5% 2.0%
Cowper NAT 13.2% 10.7%
Cunningham ALP 11.3% 13.8%
Curtin LIB 18.2% 15.7%
Dawson LNP 7.6% 5.1%
Deakin LIB 3.2% 0.7%
Denison IND 15.5% v ALP N/A
Dickson LNP 6.7% 4.2%
Dobell ALP 0.2% 2.7%
Dunkley LIB 5.6% 3.1%
Durack LIB 3.9% v NAT N/A
Eden-Monaro LIB 2.9% 0.4%
Fadden LNP 14.4% 11.9%
Fairfax PUP 0.03% v LNP N/A
Farrer LIB 21.8% 19.3%
Fenner ALP 12.5% 15.0%
Fisher LNP 9.8% 7.3%
Flinders LIB 11.8% 9.3%
Flynn LNP 6.5% 4.0%
Forde LNP 4.4% 1.9%
Forrest LIB 14.0% 11.5%
Fowler ALP 12.9% 15.4%
Franklin ALP 5.1% 7.6%
Fremantle ALP 5.4% 7.9%
Gellibrand ALP 16.5% 19.0%
Gilmore LIB 3.8% 1.3%
Gippsland NAT 15.8% 13.3%
Goldstein LIB 11.0% 8.5%
Gorton ALP 16.1% 18.6%
Grayndler ALP 18.8% 21.3%
Greenway ALP 3.0% 5.5%
Grey LIB 13.5% 11.0%
Griffith ALP 3.0% 5.5%
Groom LNP 16.5% 14.0%
Hasluck LIB 6.0% 3.5%
Herbert LNP 6.2% 3.7%
Higgins LIB 9.9% 7.4%
Hindmarsh LIB 1.9% 0.6%
Hinkler LNP 9.0% 6.5%
Holt ALP 9.1% 11.6%
Hotham ALP 7.3% 9.8%
Hughes LIB 11.8% 9.3%
Hume LIB 13.6% 11.1%
Hunter ALP 5.7% 8.2%
Indi IND 0.3% v LIB N/A
Isaacs ALP 3.9% 6.4%
Jagajaga ALP 3.1% 5.6%
Kennedy KAP 2.2% v LNP N/A
Kingsford Smith ALP 2.7% 5.2%
Kingston ALP 9.7% 12.2%
Kooyong LIB 11.1% 8.6%
La Trobe LIB 4.0% 1.5%
Lalor ALP 12.2% 14.7%
Leichhardt LNP 5.7% 3.2%
Lilley ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Lindsay LIB 3.0% 0.5%
Lingiari ALP 0.9% 3.4%
Longman LNP 6.9% 4.4%
Lyne NAT 13.6% 11.1%
Lyons LIB 1.2% 1.3%
Macarthur LIB 3.3% 0.8%
Mackellar LIB 18.8% 16.3%
Macquarie LIB 4.5% 2.0%
Makin ALP 5.1% 7.6%
Mallee NAT 23.7% 21.2%
Maranoa LNP 22.3% 19.8%
Maribyrnong ALP 11.4% 13.9%
Mayo LIB 12.5% 10.0%
McEwen ALP 0.2% 2.7%
McMahon ALP 4.6% 7.1%
McMillan LIB 11.8% 9.3%
McPherson LNP 13.0% 10.5%
Melbourne GRN 5.3% v ALP N/A
Melbourne Ports ALP 3.6% 6.1%
Menzies LIB 14.5% 12.0%
Mitchell LIB 21.4% 18.9%
Moncrieff LNP 18.0% 15.5%
Moore LIB 12.4% 9.9%
Moreton ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Murray LIB 20.9% 18.4%
New England NAT 19.6% 17.1%
Newcastle ALP 9.4% 11.9%
North Sydney LIB 15.7% 13.2%
O'Connor LIB 0.9% v NAT N/A
Oxley ALP 3.8% 6.3%
Page NAT 3.1% 0.6%
Parkes NAT 19.9% 17.4%
Parramatta ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Paterson ALP 0.4% 2.9%
Pearce LIB 9.3% 6.8%
Perth ALP 2.2% 4.7%
Petrie LNP 0.5% 2.0%
Port Adelaide ALP 14.0% 16.5%
Rankin ALP 4.8% 7.3%
Reid LIB 3.4% 0.9%
Richmond ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Riverina NAT 19.0% 16.5%
Robertson LIB 3.1% 0.6%
Ryan LNP 8.5% 6.0%
Scullin ALP 14.4% 16.9%
Shortland ALP 7.4% 9.9%
Solomon CLP 1.4% 1.1%
Stirling LIB 9.0% 6.5%
Sturt LIB 10.1% 7.6%
Swan LIB 7.3% 4.8%
Sydney ALP 12.9% 15.4%
Tangney LIB 13.0% 10.5%
Wakefield ALP 3.4% 5.9%
Wannon LIB 10.1% 7.6%
Warringah LIB 15.3% 12.8%
Watson ALP 8.9% 11.4%
Wentworth LIB 18.9% 16.4%
Werriwa ALP 6.5% 9.0%
Whitlam ALP 6.9% 9.4%
Wide Bay LNP 13.2% 10.7%
Wills ALP 15.2% v GRN N/A
Wright LNP 11.8% 9.3%

That leaves 9 seats not covered, due to not being Coalition v ALP contests:

Batman
Denison
Durack
Fairfax
Indi
Kennedy
Melbourne
O'Connor
Wills

Palmer is bowing out of Fairfax, and his approval in that seat is famously low. Since his contest was v LNP, I'm giving them that seat.

Durack and O'Connor are intra-Coalition contests, and thus almost guaranteed to stay with the Coalition under one party or the other. It's hard to call without data on NAT polling, but the LNP has been urging Coalition supporters to vote Liberal over minor parties to avoid a hung parliament. While this doesn't really apply to the NATs it might sway a few conservatives to back blue over yellow. I predict Coalition holding these seats.

Batman has the ALP at 10.6% vs the Greens, and Wills has 15.2% ALP v GRN. With both parties increasing their national primary vote by a couple of %, and such safe margins, ALP should hold these seats.

Denison is 15.5% IND vs ALP. There's no applicability of national polling in such a race, but seal-wide polling suggests - as would such a large margin, that Andrew Wilkie will be returned. Indi is much closer at IND 0.3% v LIB, and I have no seat polling for this one. That said, the hit to Coalition numbers, though small, may manifest as IND support in this seat. Tentatively predicting Indi to be held by Cathy McGowan. Kennedy has been safe Katter territory since 1966, excluding a single election in 1990 between Katter Sr and Katter Jr. And Katter's 2.2% is v the LNP, which should lose some support anyhow. Katter will hold this seat.

And that just leaves Melbourne, GRN 5.3% v ALP. Again, both parties have improved their national vote a little, and I have no local polling. I'm going to call this a GRN retain.


Adelaide ALP 4.0% 6.5%
Aston LIB 8.2% 5.7%
Ballarat ALP 4.9% 7.4%
Banks LIB 2.6% 0.1%
Barker LIB 16.6% 14.1%
Barton ALP 4.4% 6.9%
Bass LIB 4.0% 1.5%
Batman ALP 10.6% v GRN N/A
Bendigo ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Bennelong LIB 7.8% 5.3%
Berowra LIB 19.0% 16.5%
Blair ALP 5.3% 7.8%
Blaxland ALP 11.2% 13.7%
Bonner LNP 3.7% 1.2%
Boothby LIB 7.1% 4.6%
Bowman LNP 8.9% 6.4%
Braddon LIB 2.6% 0.1%
Bradfield LIB 20.9% 18.4%
Brand ALP 3.7% 6.2%
Brisbane LNP 4.3% 1.8%
Bruce ALP 1.8% 4.3%
Burt LIB 6.1% 3.6%
Calare NAT 15.0% 12.5%
Calwell ALP 13.9% 16.4%
Canberra ALP 7.4% 9.9%
Canning LIB 11.3% 8.8%
Capricornia LNP 0.8% 1.7%
Casey LIB 7.2% 4.7%
Chifley ALP 10.9% 13.4%
Chisholm ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Cook LIB 15.8% 13.3%
Corangamite LIB 3.9% 1.4%
Corio ALP 7.8% 10.3%
Cowan LIB 4.5% 2.0%
Cowper NAT 13.2% 10.7%
Cunningham ALP 11.3% 13.8%
Curtin LIB 18.2% 15.7%
Dawson LNP 7.6% 5.1%
Deakin LIB 3.2% 0.7%
Denison IND 15.5% v ALP N/A
Dickson LNP 6.7% 4.2%
Dobell ALP 0.2% 2.7%
Dunkley LIB 5.6% 3.1%
Durack LIB 3.9% v NAT N/A
Eden-Monaro LIB 2.9% 0.4%
Fadden LNP 14.4% 11.9%
Fairfax PUP 0.03% v LNP N/A
Farrer LIB 21.8% 19.3%
Fenner ALP 12.5% 15.0%
Fisher LNP 9.8% 7.3%
Flinders LIB 11.8% 9.3%
Flynn LNP 6.5% 4.0%
Forde LNP 4.4% 1.9%
Forrest LIB 14.0% 11.5%
Fowler ALP 12.9% 15.4%
Franklin ALP 5.1% 7.6%
Fremantle ALP 5.4% 7.9%
Gellibrand ALP 16.5% 19.0%
Gilmore LIB 3.8% 1.3%
Gippsland NAT 15.8% 13.3%
Goldstein LIB 11.0% 8.5%
Gorton ALP 16.1% 18.6%
Grayndler ALP 18.8% 21.3%
Greenway ALP 3.0% 5.5%
Grey LIB 13.5% 11.0%
Griffith ALP 3.0% 5.5%
Groom LNP 16.5% 14.0%
Hasluck LIB 6.0% 3.5%
Herbert LNP 6.2% 3.7%
Higgins LIB 9.9% 7.4%
Hindmarsh LIB 1.9% 0.6%
Hinkler LNP 9.0% 6.5%
Holt ALP 9.1% 11.6%
Hotham ALP 7.3% 9.8%
Hughes LIB 11.8% 9.3%
Hume LIB 13.6% 11.1%
Hunter ALP 5.7% 8.2%
Indi IND 0.3% v LIB N/A
Isaacs ALP 3.9% 6.4%
Jagajaga ALP 3.1% 5.6%
Kennedy KAP 2.2% v LNP N/A
Kingsford Smith ALP 2.7% 5.2%
Kingston ALP 9.7% 12.2%
Kooyong LIB 11.1% 8.6%
La Trobe LIB 4.0% 1.5%
Lalor ALP 12.2% 14.7%
Leichhardt LNP 5.7% 3.2%
Lilley ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Lindsay LIB 3.0% 0.5%
Lingiari ALP 0.9% 3.4%
Longman LNP 6.9% 4.4%
Lyne NAT 13.6% 11.1%
Lyons LIB 1.2% 1.3%
Macarthur LIB 3.3% 0.8%
Mackellar LIB 18.8% 16.3%
Macquarie LIB 4.5% 2.0%
Makin ALP 5.1% 7.6%
Mallee NAT 23.7% 21.2%
Maranoa LNP 22.3% 19.8%
Maribyrnong ALP 11.4% 13.9%
Mayo LIB 12.5% 10.0%
McEwen ALP 0.2% 2.7%
McMahon ALP 4.6% 7.1%
McMillan LIB 11.8% 9.3%
McPherson LNP 13.0% 10.5%
Melbourne GRN 5.3% v ALP N/A
Melbourne Ports ALP 3.6% 6.1%
Menzies LIB 14.5% 12.0%
Mitchell LIB 21.4% 18.9%
Moncrieff LNP 18.0% 15.5%
Moore LIB 12.4% 9.9%
Moreton ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Murray LIB 20.9% 18.4%
New England NAT 19.6% 17.1%
Newcastle ALP 9.4% 11.9%
North Sydney LIB 15.7% 13.2%
O'Connor LIB 0.9% v NAT N/A
Oxley ALP 3.8% 6.3%
Page NAT 3.1% 0.6%
Parkes NAT 19.9% 17.4%
Parramatta ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Paterson ALP 0.4% 2.9%
Pearce LIB 9.3% 6.8%
Perth ALP 2.2% 4.7%
Petrie LNP 0.5% 2.0%
Port Adelaide ALP 14.0% 16.5%
Rankin ALP 4.8% 7.3%
Reid LIB 3.4% 0.9%
Richmond ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Riverina NAT 19.0% 16.5%
Robertson LIB 3.1% 0.6%
Ryan LNP 8.5% 6.0%
Scullin ALP 14.4% 16.9%
Shortland ALP 7.4% 9.9%
Solomon CLP 1.4% 1.1%
Stirling LIB 9.0% 6.5%
Sturt LIB 10.1% 7.6%
Swan LIB 7.3% 4.8%
Sydney ALP 12.9% 15.4%
Tangney LIB 13.0% 10.5%
Wakefield ALP 3.4% 5.9%
Wannon LIB 10.1% 7.6%
Warringah LIB 15.3% 12.8%
Watson ALP 8.9% 11.4%
Wentworth LIB 18.9% 16.4%
Werriwa ALP 6.5% 9.0%
Whitlam ALP 6.9% 9.4%
Wide Bay LNP 13.2% 10.7%
Wills ALP 15.2% v GRN N/A
Wright LNP 11.8% 9.3%

So that's the simple prediction. ALP gains 5 seats, all from the Coalition, and the Coalition gains one from PUP for LIB/NAT 84, ALP 62, Other 4 - a clear Coalition majority.

Local Polling

I mentioned the individual seat polling, which can be found here for seats the media has, at times, taken an interest in. I've added an extra column for the most recent seat polling (or, where the most recent poll was a tie, the most recent un-tied poll. These seats are marked with an *)

Adelaide ALP 4.0% 6.5% LIB
Aston LIB 8.2% 5.7%
Ballarat ALP 4.9% 7.4%
Banks LIB 2.6% 0.1% LIB
Barker LIB 16.6% 14.1% NXT
Barton ALP 4.4% 6.9%
Bass LIB 4.0% 1.5% LIB*
Batman ALP 10.6% v GRN N/A GRN
Bendigo ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Bennelong LIB 7.8% 5.3%
Berowra LIB 19.0% 16.5%
Blair ALP 5.3% 7.8%
Blaxland ALP 11.2% 13.7%
Bonner LNP 3.7% 1.2% LNP
Boothby LIB 7.1% 4.6% LIB
Bowman LNP 8.9% 6.4%
Braddon LIB 2.6% 0.1% LIB*
Bradfield LIB 20.9% 18.4%
Brand ALP 3.7% 6.2%
Brisbane LNP 4.3% 1.8% LNP
Bruce ALP 1.8% 4.3% ALP
Burt LIB 6.1% 3.6% ALP
Calare NAT 15.0% 12.5%
Calwell ALP 13.9% 16.4%
Canberra ALP 7.4% 9.9%
Canning LIB 11.3% 8.8%
Capricornia LNP 0.8% 1.7% ALP
Casey LIB 7.2% 4.7%
Chifley ALP 10.9% 13.4%
Chisholm ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Cook LIB 15.8% 13.3%
Corangamite LIB 3.9% 1.4% LIB
Corio ALP 7.8% 10.3%
Cowan LIB 4.5% 2.0% ALP*
Cowper NAT 13.2% 10.7% NAT
Cunningham ALP 11.3% 13.8%
Curtin LIB 18.2% 15.7%
Dawson LNP 7.6% 5.1%
Deakin LIB 3.2% 0.7% LIB
Denison IND 15.5% v ALP N/A IND
Dickson LNP 6.7% 4.2%
Dobell ALP 0.2% 2.7% LIB
Dunkley LIB 5.6% 3.1% LIB
Durack LIB 3.9% v NAT N/A
Eden-Monaro LIB 2.9% 0.4% ALP
Fadden LNP 14.4% 11.9%
Fairfax PUP 0.03% v LNP N/A
Farrer LIB 21.8% 19.3%
Fenner ALP 12.5% 15.0%
Fisher LNP 9.8% 7.3%
Flinders LIB 11.8% 9.3%
Flynn LNP 6.5% 4.0%
Forde LNP 4.4% 1.9%
Forrest LIB 14.0% 11.5%
Fowler ALP 12.9% 15.4%
Franklin ALP 5.1% 7.6% ALP
Fremantle ALP 5.4% 7.9%
Gellibrand ALP 16.5% 19.0%
Gilmore LIB 3.8% 1.3% LIB
Gippsland NAT 15.8% 13.3%
Goldstein LIB 11.0% 8.5%
Gorton ALP 16.1% 18.6%
Grayndler ALP 18.8% 21.3%
Greenway ALP 3.0% 5.5%
Grey LIB 13.5% 11.0% NXT
Griffith ALP 3.0% 5.5% ALP
Groom LNP 16.5% 14.0%
Hasluck LIB 6.0% 3.5% LIB*
Herbert LNP 6.2% 3.7% LNP
Higgins LIB 9.9% 7.4% LIB
Hindmarsh LIB 1.9% 0.6%
Hinkler LNP 9.0% 6.5%
Holt ALP 9.1% 11.6%
Hotham ALP 7.3% 9.8%
Hughes LIB 11.8% 9.3%
Hume LIB 13.6% 11.1%
Hunter ALP 5.7% 8.2%
Indi IND 0.3% v LIB N/A
Isaacs ALP 3.9% 6.4%
Jagajaga ALP 3.1% 5.6%
Kennedy KAP 2.2% v LNP N/A KAP
Kingsford Smith ALP 2.7% 5.2%
Kingston ALP 9.7% 12.2%
Kooyong LIB 11.1% 8.6%
La Trobe LIB 4.0% 1.5%
Lalor ALP 12.2% 14.7%
Leichhardt LNP 5.7% 3.2%
Lilley ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Lindsay LIB 3.0% 0.5% LIB
Lingiari ALP 0.9% 3.4%
Longman LNP 6.9% 4.4% LNP
Lyne NAT 13.6% 11.1%
Lyons LIB 1.2% 1.3% ALP
Macarthur LIB 3.3% 0.8% ALP*
Mackellar LIB 18.8% 16.3%
Macquarie LIB 4.5% 2.0% ALP
Makin ALP 5.1% 7.6%
Mallee NAT 23.7% 21.2%
Maranoa LNP 22.3% 19.8%
Maribyrnong ALP 11.4% 13.9%
Mayo LIB 12.5% 10.0% NXT
McEwen ALP 0.2% 2.7% ALP
McMahon ALP 4.6% 7.1%
McMillan LIB 11.8% 9.3%
McPherson LNP 13.0% 10.5%
Melbourne GRN 5.3% v ALP N/A
Melbourne Ports ALP 3.6% 6.1%
Menzies LIB 14.5% 12.0% LIB
Mitchell LIB 21.4% 18.9%
Moncrieff LNP 18.0% 15.5%
Moore LIB 12.4% 9.9%
Moreton ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Murray LIB 20.9% 18.4%
New England NAT 19.6% 17.1% NAT
Newcastle ALP 9.4% 11.9%
North Sydney LIB 15.7% 13.2%
O'Connor LIB 0.9% v NAT N/A
Oxley ALP 3.8% 6.3%
Page NAT 3.1% 0.6% ALP
Parkes NAT 19.9% 17.4%
Parramatta ALP 1.3% 3.8%
Paterson ALP 0.4% 2.9% ALP
Pearce LIB 9.3% 6.8% LIB
Perth ALP 2.2% 4.7%
Petrie LNP 0.5% 2.0% ALP
Port Adelaide ALP 14.0% 16.5%
Rankin ALP 4.8% 7.3%
Reid LIB 3.4% 0.9% LIB
Richmond ALP 1.6% 4.1%
Riverina NAT 19.0% 16.5%
Robertson LIB 3.1% 0.6% ALP
Ryan LNP 8.5% 6.0%
Scullin ALP 14.4% 16.9%
Shortland ALP 7.4% 9.9%
Solomon CLP 1.4% 1.1% ALP
Stirling LIB 9.0% 6.5%
Sturt LIB 10.1% 7.6% LIB
Swan LIB 7.3% 4.8%
Sydney ALP 12.9% 15.4%
Tangney LIB 13.0% 10.5%
Wakefield ALP 3.4% 5.9%
Wannon LIB 10.1% 7.6%
Warringah LIB 15.3% 12.8%
Watson ALP 8.9% 11.4%
Wentworth LIB 18.9% 16.4% LIB
Werriwa ALP 6.5% 9.0%
Whitlam ALP 6.9% 9.4%
Wide Bay LNP 13.2% 10.7%
Wills ALP 15.2% v GRN N/A
Wright LNP 11.8% 9.3%

Seats where this polling does not accord with our predictions are: Adelaide, Barker, Batman, Burt, Cowan, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Grey, Macarthur, Macquarie, Mayo, Page and Robertson.

These seats will be given special, additional consideration, along with Sturt, where local polling suggests a Liberal win but the NXT have been touted for a possible victory, and New England, where the polling had former incumbent IND Tony Windsor close to removing Barnaby Joyce.

Adelaide

labor's Kate Ellis has held this seat since 2004. That's before the 2007 Ruddslide and through the anti-Gillard swings of 2010 and 2013. While her margin was reduced to 4% the swing against the Coalition makes me doubt this poll. This poll is the only one for Adelaid, has the Libs winning 51% to 49% and has by far the smallest polling sample (364 vs minimum 500 elsewhere) of any seat-wide poll this election. I'm calling this poll a dud and keeping ADL with the ALP.

Barker

If anyone had said Barker would be at risk last election they would have been laughed at. The seat has been held by a member of the Liberals or Nationals, or one of their precursors, since it was founded in 1903. The Liberals currently hold it by 16.6% - a safe margin in any election. All of this, however, merely represents a state fortified against the traditional assault from the ALP. The challenge here comes from the NXT, which is a whole other kettle of fish. The poll had a large sample size, and had a 4% gap between NXT and LIB, but I'm still surprised by the whole affair. If I had tossups I'd use one here, but I don't. GI'm giving Barker to the NXT; go hard or go home.

Batman

It seems to me that before elections there's always talk of the Greens taking out another seat. last election it was Grayndler if I recall. not only did they fail, it is not even an ALP v GRN on 2pp terms. Batman is, but it has the ALP ahead by 10.6%. With a sample of over 1000 people, and a 55:45 split in favour of the Greens this looks solid, but only 3 days before another poll had the ALP ahead 53:47. Now, this seat seems incredibly safe from the Coalition but there's something screwey with one of those polls and - despite the sample size - I cannot imagine the greens gaining 10.6% on the ALP in this electoral climate. Batman stays with the ALP.

Burt

Burt. Burt is a new seat, and has no history as a result. The current rating of 6.1% Liberal is therefore an approximation based on the results from polling boothes that now fall in the electorate. But some of those votes may come from outside Burt. I'd love to use a tossup here, but since I can't I'm going to put my faith in Antony Green's adjustments for the seat and the fact that the previous divisions of Canning, Hasluck and Tangney have been pretty Liberal for a while to back the LIBs against the 52:48 poll. Don't these things normally have a error range of 3% anyhow?

Cowan

Cowan is something of a perverse seat, having been Liberal during most of the Howard years, then switching to Liberal with Rudd's victory in 2007. The margin is only 4.5%, or 2% after the national swing - this could easily fall in the natural variation of things. On the other hand, the most recent poll in Cowan was a tie, and the only other poll was ALP by 51:49. So the state polling evidence is very weak, but so is the pendulum evidence and history gives us nothing. Possibly my #1 pick for a tossup, I'm tempted to toss Cowan to an Independent just for the hell of it. Instead... I pick... LIBs?

Dobell

We have four polls for Dobell: 50:50 on May 14, ALP up to 51% by June 11, 53% by June 23 and then down to 49% on June 29. That last poll is close, previous polls favoured the ALP, but then the last poll is veryrecent. Also, I always get caught out in swings to one party by that one contrary seat that swings the other way and gets me unawares. Dobell is only held by the ALP with 0.2%. If any seat will bite me, it should be Dobell. So I'm going to take a risk and put my money on the LIBs here. This would have been my fourth tossup of my allowed seven, for those counting.

Eden-Monaro

Et tu, Eden-Monaro? The famous bell-wether seat, EM has been won by the winning party since 1972. Just on the numbers already (and the campaign so far) it's clear that the outcome shuld either be Coalition majority or minority government. But I think Eden-Monaro is about to burn it's claim-to-fame and side with the ALP. There have been two polls of this seat, both favouring the ALP 55:45. And the seat is held by 2.9% which gets almost entirely ersed by my anticipated 2.5% swing. I wouldn't stake anything on the resiliance of that last 0.4%, so this is my big surprise prediction - Coalition government but ALP in Eden-Monaro.

Grey

Grey, like Barker above and Mayo below is a safe Liberal seat by any normal standard. All three are sitting pretty on a margin of 10% (the traditional definition of "safe") even after the 2.5% swing to the ALP. Unlike the other two, though, Grey actually has been ALP historically, though not since 1993. But for all three seats we can chuck that all out the window, because the NXT vote is eroding LIB support in a way the ALP never could. On paper this should be the first of the three to fall to the NXT, with the less Coalition-dominated history and NXT poll of 54% compared to 52% in Barker and Mayo's most recent polls (although these are more recent and Mayo did beat 54% after Grey). But I cannot shake the feeling that if NXT loses one of its trifecta, it'll be this one. Still, all for one and one for all. I'll give Grey to Xeonphon and hope for the best.

Macarthur

Seat ALP:LIB polling history for Macarthur: 51:49 on May 14, 51:49 on May 19, 50:50 on June 17 and 50:50 on June 25. So the two most recent polls have the seat at a tie, and the old polls only give the ALP a 1% lead. Then again, the seat is only held by 3.3%, or 0.8% after the expected swing. This'll be a close one and my fifth tossup if I had any to spend. Just for the sake of a tie-break the seat has been in Liberal hands since '96, so I'm cautiously expecting them to retain Macarthur.

Macquarie

Macquarie has shuffled between the Coalition and Labor since federation, and is held by 4.5%. This seat is ripe for the picking, but would require double the national predicted swing. That is very far from impossible, and the poll was recent, had a decent sample, and predicted an 8% gap between ALP and the LIBs, so I'll put a modicum of faith in the polling methodology and back the ALP here.

Mayo

Mayo, my own seat, has never been a close contest. It is held by the Liberals' Jamie Briggs by 12.5%, and has been Liberal since the seat was founded in 1984. If this was a suggestion that the ALP would take the seat, I'd dismiss it immediately. The NXT party could well outpoll the ALP because of the latter's minimal chances in the seat, and if those preferences flow away from the Coalition as one would expect, May could be in NXT's pocket. There are actually 3 local polls for Mayo. All have NXT beating the Libs. I'm calling Mayo for NXT.

New England

New England is historically predictable. The Nationals and their forebears have held the seat since before the First World War, with two exceptions. The first was when Country Party candidate Alexander Hay went Independent in 1922 and was replaced that year by Country Party candidateVictor Thompson. The other was when popular Independent Tony Windsor held the seat from 2001 to 2013 when he retired. The seat then went back to high-profile Nationals candidate, deputy Prime minister and Nationals Party leader Barnaby Joyce, who holds the seat by almost 20%. The only local poll has Joyce holding the seat. Why would I put this seat on my review list?

Tony Windsor is coming out of retirement. The only poll we have has Joyce leading 51:49 and that was over a fortnight ago with a smaller sample size. I don't have any data that puts Windsor ahead, but the safety of this seat is largely illusory in my view. I'd make this tossup 6 if i could, but I can't so I'll take the ballsy and empirically unsupported route of calling this one IND.

Page

Page historically has shifted with the tide. It was National for a while under Howard, came to Labor with Rudd and ebbed away again to Abbot. With a 3.1% margin, or 0.6% after the national expected swing, Page is far from safe. We have two recent polls - June 21 and June 23 - both putting ALP ahead (52% and 54% respectively). So I'll back the ALP in Page.

Robertson

Like Page, Robertson is held by 3.1%, or 0.6% after the expected average swing. The seat has had its share of swings, being Liberal under Howard, ALP under Rudd-Gillard-Rudd and LIB again under Abbot-Turnbull. So if the polls were as convincing as in Page, I'd jump to the ALP. Unfortunately they're not. 53% on June 18 is prominsing for Labor, but the previous poll one day earlier had the Libs ahead 51:49. That suggests sampling or methodological issues to me (and maybe all the polls are this unreliable!) so I'll stick to my guns and back the LIBs.

Sturt

And finally, Sturt. Christopher Pyne is a high profile candidate, has a "safe" margin of over 10%, has held the seat since 1993, the seat has been Liberal since 1972, and only been in ALP hands for two short and non-consecutive terms. But Pyne did take a big hit in the Ruddslide, holding the seat by 0.9%. And it's not the ALP Pyne needs to worry about. This seat is the fourth possible NXT victory often described. A May 22 poll hadPyne beating NXT 51:49. But since then, on june 17, Pyne boosted his polling up to 58%, albeit with a smaller sample size. I don't think NXT will do as well here as some have touted. I suspect Pyne will be returned.

And so...

That leaves me with this set of predictions:
DIVISION CURRENT PREDICTED
Adelaide ALP ALP
Aston LIB LIB
Ballarat ALP ALP
Banks LIB LIB
Barker LIB NXT
Barton ALP ALP
Bass LIB LIB
Batman ALP ALP
Bendigo ALP ALP
Bennelong LIB LIB
Berowra LIB LIB
Blair ALP ALP
Blaxland ALP ALP
Bonner LNP LNP
Boothby LIB LIB
Bowman LNP LNP
Braddon LIB LIB
Bradfield LIB LIB
Brand ALP ALP
Brisbane LNP LNP
Bruce ALP ALP
Burt LIB LIB
Calare NAT NAT
Calwell ALP ALP
Canberra ALP ALP
Canning LIB LIB
Capricornia LNP ALP
Casey LIB LIB
Chifley ALP ALP
Chisholm ALP ALP
Cook LIB LIB
Corangamite LIB LIB
Corio ALP ALP
Cowan LIB LIB
Cowper NAT NAT
Cunningham ALP ALP
Curtin LIB LIB
Dawson LNP LNP
Deakin LIB LIB
Denison IND IND
Dickson LNP LNP
Dobell ALP LIB
Dunkley LIB LIB
Durack LIB LIB
Eden-Monaro LIB ALP
Fadden LNP LNP
Fairfax PUP LNP
Farrer LIB LIB
Fenner ALP ALP
Fisher LNP LNP
Flinders LIB LIB
Flynn LNP LNP
Forde LNP LNP
Forrest LIB LIB
Fowler ALP ALP
Franklin ALP ALP
Fremantle ALP ALP
Gellibrand ALP ALP
Gilmore LIB LIB
Gippsland NAT NAT
Goldstein LIB LIB
Gorton ALP ALP
Grayndler ALP ALP
Greenway ALP ALP
Grey LIB NXT
Griffith ALP ALP
Groom LNP LNP
Hasluck LIB LIB
Herbert LNP LNP
Higgins LIB LIB
Hindmarsh LIB ALP
Hinkler LNP LNP
Holt ALP ALP
Hotham ALP ALP
Hughes LIB LIB
Hume LIB LIB
Hunter ALP ALP
Indi IND IND
Isaacs ALP ALP
Jagajaga ALP ALP
Kennedy KAP KAP
Kingsford Smith ALP ALP
Kingston ALP ALP
Kooyong LIB LIB
La Trobe LIB LIB
Lalor ALP ALP
Leichhardt LNP LNP
Lilley ALP ALP
Lindsay LIB LIB
Lingiari ALP ALP
Longman LNP LNP
Lyne NAT NAT
Lyons LIB ALP
Macarthur LIB LIB
Mackellar LIB LIB
Macquarie LIB ALP
Makin ALP ALP
Mallee NAT NAT
Maranoa LNP LNP
Maribyrnong ALP ALP
Mayo LIB NXT
McEwen ALP ALP
McMahon ALP ALP
McMillan LIB LIB
McPherson LNP LNP
Melbourne GRN GRN
Melbourne Ports ALP ALP
Menzies LIB LIB
Mitchell LIB LIB
Moncrieff LNP LNP
Moore LIB LIB
Moreton ALP ALP
Murray LIB LIB
New England NAT IND
Newcastle ALP ALP
North Sydney LIB LIB
O'Connor LIB LIB
Oxley ALP ALP
Page NAT ALP
Parkes NAT NAT
Parramatta ALP ALP
Paterson ALP ALP
Pearce LIB LIB
Perth ALP ALP
Petrie LNP ALP
Port Adelaide ALP ALP
Rankin ALP ALP
Reid LIB LIB
Richmond ALP ALP
Riverina NAT NAT
Robertson LIB LIB
Ryan LNP LNP
Scullin ALP ALP
Shortland ALP ALP
Solomon CLP ALP
Stirling LIB LIB
Sturt LIB LIB
Swan LIB LIB
Sydney ALP ALP
Tangney LIB LIB
Wakefield ALP ALP
Wannon LIB LIB
Warringah LIB LIB
Watson ALP ALP
Wentworth LIB LIB
Werriwa ALP ALP
Whitlam ALP ALP
Wide Bay LNP LNP
Wills ALP ALP
Wright LNP LNP

That's 78 seats for the Coalition, 64 for Labor and 8 on the cross-bench, for a Coalition majority government. But you guys already knew that right? It's who holds the balance in the senate that will make this  parliament interesting.