Sunday, 18 March 2018

The good, the bad, the nitty-gritty, the legislative council and the Dark Knight.

We actually have four elections to recap--one predicted well, one poorly and two I didn't touch. First up:


Not a huge amount to say here. These were my predictions:

These were the actual results:

The areas I got right really don't leave me much to talk about. They fell the way I said they would, presumably for the reasons I said they would. The only incorrect call is the final seat in Bass. The prediction for this was that the Greens would lead the 4-way race for this last seat. In quote fractions, this was incorrect as follows:

ALP: 0.58
GRN: 0.56

LIB: 0.53
JLN: 0.28

As such, my flow-on predictions did not work out. I did provide a short summary of what might happen if the ALP was ahead at this point, but it was basically a mess depending on who dropped out next and how JLN preferences distributed. At a basic level, though, my prediction failed because I assumed ALP would get 1Q+N votes and the greens M where Q is a full quota, and N < M < Q. in actual fact N > M by a very thin margin--an error of 297 first-preference votes in a seat with almost 65,000 formal ballots. That's pretty darn close to getting 100% on my predictions.


A somewhat less pleasing prediction result here, but one that I will break down into specific areas I did well in to soothe my wounded ego. While there may be a little counting to go in some seats, the results look reasonably clear:

That is 36 correct out of 47 or less than 77%. Not great. But there is some silver (or, at least, grey) lining. Normally the independents are hard to predict: they can come and go without warning, with no regular polling available and campaigns limited to individual seats making them very hard to research. Yet of the 15 lower house independent candidates, and with five seats previously held by independents, I managed to predict every single one. That's something of an accomplishment.

Additionally, and now famously, Xenophon's SA-Best party dramatically underperformed compared to expectations. On the numbers, I had 7 seats going to SA-Best but I did also say
My gut says SA-Best might get 3 seats at most, and the others go to the Libs
 I had no statistical basis for this, so didn't bother to specify which of the seven I would give to the Libs; that said, the Liberal party won every one of the SAB-predicted seats so it wouldn't have mattered. Going on my assumption four of those would be won by the Libs raises my hit rate to 40/47 or a respectable 85%. If my prediction that any possible SAB seat lost would be picked up by the Liberals was extended to all seven seats for a standard 2-party dominated election I would have scored 43/47 or 91%.

The other four are Adelaide, Giles, King and Mawson. Two were predicted for Labor and won by the Liberals, and the other two predicted for the Liberals and won by Labor. As a result, my prediction without SA-Best would have been ALP 19: LIB 25: IND 3--the actual result. That's a (rather fudged) 100%. Then again a recount in Adelaide is looking like it might actually pass to the ALP and if so: "Yay! Another seat right!" but also "There goes my post-hoc 100%"

So despite the rather poor result this election, in a race without Xenophon (assuming that did not shift preference flows etc), this would have been a solid result.

Thanks, Obama! Nick!


So I didn't make any predictions for the LegCo due to time constraints. That said, I think it's worth checking in on since I actually prefer voting for upper houses where there is a diversity of great and not-at-all-great candidates to balance.

Newspoll had the vote split as follows 2 days before the election: ALP 31: LIB 34: SAB 17: GRN 8: Other 10 (I am ignoring the ReachTEL poll of the same day since it only considered ALP, LIB and SAB with no GRN or Others). There were 11 seats to fill, and they need to reach the Droop Quota: that's (Total votes/( Seats+1))+1 or just over 1/12th (8.333%) of the vote in this case. So logically you'd expect ALP to win 3, LIB to win 4, SAB to win 2, with the last two up for grabs. GRN are a rounding error away from getting one too. So We could have predicted ALP 3: LIB 4: SAB 2: GRN 1. There is 10 sitting with the Others, but they are too diverse to likely scratch a seat together and it would be impossible to pick which party to give it to (possibly Dignity, based on their past election). Alternatively, The residual votes after the assigned Quotas would look something like ALP 6: LIB 0.333: SAB 0.333. The chance of far left and far right minor parties cooperating enough to outperform the ALP at that stage would have been unthinkable given the absence of preference tickets in modern voting. So the final prediction (postdiction?) would have to be ALP 4: LIB 4: SAB 2: GRN 1.

And that's exactly what the results came out as.


And lastly, of course, I did not make a prediction for the much-discussed Batman by-election which gripped most of the nation while SA was voting locally. I didn't even have time to predict the SA LegCo, so what do you expect?

The 2016 election had the ALP hold off the greens with 51% of the vote, 2-party preferred. Polling from February was predicting an ALP win of 53%, the only poll on the by-election's Wikipedia page. Off of that, I should have suspected the ALP would hold the seat, but many commentators were predicting a Greens victory. As a result, Labor's eventual victory is being hailed as a terrible loss for the Greens, but I don't see it that way at all.

There was a recorded swing to the ALP. But then the Liberal party didn't even run, and I don't see those voters (some of whom may have lingered briefly with the conservatives or other minor parties) flowing to the Greens very much. Then again, their eventual landing with the ALP would have happened after the Libs dropped out in 2016. So, yes, there was a swing against the Greens. On the other hand, the Greens still picked up almost 40% of the primary vote. That's not a bad result for a party often left in distant third place.

Friday, 16 March 2018

Staying in the lines

Been a while since I did one of these, but here is the old map-and-chart combo for those playing along at home during the election broadcast. Colour pencils not included.

Thursday, 15 March 2018

SA-Best Guesses

Alright, it's election day tomorrow. We all know why we're here. Let's do some number crunching.

First up, here is the pendulum after the last boundary redistribution:

This redistribution put four Labor-held seats (Colton, Elder, Mawson and Newland) into the nominally Liberal range. Seats italicised are those that will deserve special consideration later on, either because the incumbent does not match the nominal 2-party margin (the four previous seats and those held by independents) or because they are on The Poll Bludger's list of possible wins for SA-Best. Two by-elections in SA (in the seats of Fisher and Davenport) also mean that applying the swing from 2014 (rather than the by-election year) may be flawed. Davenport already deserves special consideration as a possible SA-Best win; Fisher is no longer a seat. So let's just apply the predicted swing across the board to get us started.

A Swing and a Prayer

The interesting thing about this election is that, compared to 2014, both Labor and Liberal have reduced their primary vote (down 5.8 and 12.8 percentage points respectively, according to Newspoll). This is largely due to the rise of SA-Best--indeed polls have stopped publishing 2 party preferred data.

So in all non-italicised seats (where SA-Best is unlikely to win, and preferences will flow as normal), I have applied a slight swing calculated as follows:
In 2014 the 2pp vote was 47% ALP: 53% LIB
Xenophon votes generally split roughly 60:40 to the Liberals (Source: p.7)
Numbers on Greens votes are harder to find, but lets assume 90:10 to the ALP
'Others' are ignored as unpredictable
Using these ratios the latest polling of: ALP 30; LIB 32; SAB 21; GRN 7
Becomes: ALP 44.3; LIB 45.3
adjusted to sum to 100, this is rounded to: 49:51
And this equates to a 2% swing to the ALP
Applied to all 2-party contests the pendulum then looks something like:

Interestingly, this slight shift to the ALP is nowhere near enough to bring the four re-drawn seats that shifted to the Liberals back to Labor, nor does it change any seat except that it brought the surprise 2010 Lib win in Adelaide back to a tossup. Then again, the margin of error on these polls is around 2 to 3 percentage points, which would put Black and Gibson in doubt too. Let's add them to the list in need of review:

Adelaide, Black, Chaffey, Colton, Davenport, Elder, Finniss, Florey, Frome, Gibson, Giles, Hammond, Hartley, Heysen, Kavel, Mawson, Morialta, Morphett, Mt Gambier, Narungga, Newland, Stuart and Waite.

Holy Pebble-counters, that's a lot!

To have 23 uncertain seats from 47 (literally just under 50%) at this stage is a record for me. Let's look at the independents first:

Florey: Florey is a safe ALP seat on the numbers and by history. The current incumbent, Frances Bedford, was an ALP member until she became an independent last year. The biggest challenge to an independent is getting enough name recognition to beat the major parties, and sometimes being an incumbent is not enough. In Bedford's case, this hurdle appears to have been mounted; a poll in 2017 had her primary vote ahead of the ALP, and I suspect this has only grown with the exodus of support from the major parties.
Predict: IND

Frome: In 2014, Geoff Brock's primary vote almost out-polled Liberals and Labor combined; again, the hurdle of recognition has been beaten, although there may be some backlash against the candidate in the conservative seat for working with Labor.
Predict: IND

Morphet: Duncan McFetridge has had an unfortunate run of luck, first losing his shadow ministry, then losing preselection to run as a Liberal. As a sitting MP, he will have some traction but it will be an uphill battle to keep this staunch Liberal seat:
Predict: LIB

Mt Gambier: Despite controversy surrounding the financial actions of former-Liberal, independent incumbent Troy Bell, there was polling about a month back showing he would easily win the seat and I don't expect this to have changed. This seat was also listed as a potential Xenophon win, but this has been accounted for in the polls.
Predict: IND

Waite: Safe liberal seat, former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent shortly after the last election and notoriously assisted the ALP as a minister this term. Some retribution is to be expected here. This seat has also been singled out as a strong chance for SA-Best. Support for Xenophon in the seat during the federal election was around 23.5%, This is less than the primary vote for the ALP in 2014, though no doubt some of that will be eroded to SA-Best. It is therefore likely that SA-Best will beat the ALP, inherit a lot of preferences and may have a shot at Waite. I will tentatively give this seat to SA-Best, though a Liberal victory would not be surprising. My expectations are the Hamilton-Smith preferences will back SA-Best too, as conservatives disillusioned with the Liberal party, but we will have to wait (or Waite) and see...
Predict: SAB

Next, let's look at the other seats where SAB might do well. There are 13 of these, and support for SA-Best is hard to measure from the polling due to their new arrival in the stats. My back-of-the-envelope methods, then, are this:

The federal election was held in July 2016. At that time state polling included SAB support at 16pp. Federal results in these seats were over 23%. Since then, SAB primary vote statewide has improved by 5, or 31%. To be conservative, we will add a flat 5pp to the federal results (by which The Poll Bludger identified these as hot SAB seats) and compare that to the pendulum (ignoring the Davenport by-election) adjusted by the recent polling for the rise of SA-Best (ALP x83.8%; LIB x71.4%).

The test here is to see whether SA-Best can beat at least one major party so it can collect the flow-on preferences. The answer is yes in the case of Chaffey, Finniss, Hammond, Heysen and Kavel (parts of federal Mayo, which elected Xenophon's only lower house candidate in 2016) and Stuart. I will tentatively give these to SA-Best and the others to the major parties. Interestingly, this means Xenophon's own seat of Hartley is given to the LIBs.

Adelaide, Black, Colton and Elder. Just quickly: Adelaide has a strong ALP history; Paul Caica has held Colton since 2002, when Labor first got in, but his primary vote margin over the Libs was 0.1% and 3% 2pp--with the dropping of Labor's popularity and a tough redistribution I'm calling this LIB; Elder has been ALP since 1997, but the redistribution was rough--nominally LIB; Black used to be Mitchell which was all over the place historically so dart-at-a-dartboard this is LIB too.

Final Prediction:


ALP 19; LIB 18; SA-Best 7; IND 3. That's by the numbers, at least. My gut says SA-Best might get 3 seats at most, and the others go to the Libs giving them 22. I also feel the Indpendents and Xenophon will back the Libs to form minority government either way.

Wednesday, 14 March 2018

SA Election Candidates 2018

Receipt of postal votes for the Tasmanian Legislative Assembly election closed yesterday so we will have to press on with the SA election before we get any closure on what happened down south. That said, the results so far look VERY good for our predictions so far--at last check 22 correct, 0 incorrect and 3 undecided.

A prediction of the results for SA will, of course, follow soon, but while we wait for the latest possible polling data I will go a little further than usual for my home state and give a brief summary of the parties standing in the festival state for those without the time, inclination or patience to wade through pages and pages of platitudes and political waffle. That said, it is not possible to succinctly summarise a party position, and doing your own research is always valuable.

I always try to give a somewhat impartial summary in these cases, but I have to be selective for reasons of space if nothing else. As a result, this year I am confining myself to the key points set out on each website as the key promises, and a summary of the main criticism I have read or heard for each party. I will start with the Legislative Council since most lower house candidates will be captured in this summary too.

Legislative Council (Upper House)

How to Vote: There are two ways to vote for the South Australian Legislative Council: above- or below-the-line.

To vote above-the-line, simply place a '1' in the box of your preferred party. You may number additional parties '2', '3' etc. Your vote will extinguish (cease to be counted) once it runs out of numbered boxes. The advantage of above-the-line voting is that it is quicker and easier.

To vote below-the-line, place the numbers '1' to '12' next to the candidates of your choice. You may number additional candidates from '13' onwards. Your vote will extinguish (cease to be counted) once it runs out of numbered boxes. The advantage of below-the-line voting is greater control over your vote's distribution, and you can vote for independents in the 'ungrouped' column.

If you wish to take in a sample ballot as a 'cheat sheet' with your preferences already filled out, the electoral commission provides one here you can print.

Party A: Stop Population Growth Now (SPGN)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: SPGN is largely a single-party issue. While their concerns regarding population growth range from environmental to economic to health to infrastructure, there is no easy way to divide these issues up and they are all resolved by a single policy: limit and, if necessary, reduce the population. As the party's website itself states "SPGN has chosen not to formulate detailed statements covering individual areas of public policy such as health, education, defence, energy, finance, etc."
Criticism: The main criticism, apart from being a single issue party and thus potentially unpredictable on votes for matters not touching on population, is that population growth is good for the state, the nation, the economy and so forth. Essentially, a larger workforce provides more goods and services to a larger market of consumers and provides more tax revenue to support schools, hospitals, pensions etc. SPGN summarises many of these arguments themselves (with rebuttals) here.

Party B: The Greens (GRN)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Protecting The Environment; Putting Essential Services Back In Public Hands; A Fairer Future For All (Source: 'Our Vision')
Protecting the Environment: The environmentalist side of the Greens party is well known, and is probably their defining characteristic in the public consciousness. The Greens support more renewable energy, protecting at-risk environmental areas, opposes coal-seam gas mining and--even more strongly--underground coal gassification, opposes nuclear power, reduce waste and tackle climate change.
Essential Services: The Greens push for greater and cheaper access to reliable internet as a crucial part of the future of australian lifestyles; provide greater funding to firefighting services; increase funding to community legal centres; provide more, free and government run childcare; make renewable (solar) energy available to retners and remote areas, and put greater regulation of power companies to control power prices; and implement various measures to imporve SA's water security.
Fairer Future: The Greens famously support assisted dying/euthanasia with appropriate safeguards. Perhaps less well known are their views that a government-run energy retailer is needed to combat price rises from private companies, voluntary voting in state and council elections should be possible from 16 years of age, industrial manslaughter should exist as a criminal offence to hold companies--not just negligent individuals--responsible for workplace deaths, and MPs should be prohibited from having second jobs. Additionally they want to improve minimum employemt standards for trainees, ensure a fair minimum wage and strenghten measures to stop workplace discrimination or bullying.
Criticism: The most common agrument against the Greens in my experience is that they are left-leaning hippies only concerned with protecting the environment and no real policies. Simple examination of the facts will reveal the Greens have a far wider policy platform and many solid, specific aims (whether one agrees with them or not). The most common vaguely-defensible arguement against voting for the Greens tends to be that they are a highly-activist party more concerned with pushing an agenda of no-nuclear power, renewable energy and so forth without looking at all of the data available--and occasionally relying on conspiracy theories about fossil-fuel bilionaires controlling the government to make renewable energy a universal skapegoat.

Party C: Dignity Party Inc (DIG)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Education; NDIS (Source: no concise 'short list' available, but these two issues are the only categories available on their 'Bulletin' page. I have also added disability support as a third point, since this is the core of their platform.)
Education: Dignity believes there is a need to alter public perceptions about people with disabilities, and promote the many ways people with disabilities can and do contribute to society.
NDIS: Dignity is in favour of the NDIS and extending its services, but I could not find any specific policies on this.
Disability Support: A major theme of the party's policy platofrm beond just the NDIS, Dignity pushes for all new buildings to be accessable to people with disabilities; improvements to access to employment, public transport, education, accomodation and other services; and better targetting concessions and services for low-income and people with disabilities.
Criticism: The major criticism of the Dignity party is not one unique to them: as a single-issue or predominantly single-issue party, there is some uncertainty as to how the party will vote on issues not touched by their core platform. Additionally, a focus on one issue, however serious and mimportant, may see other priorities neglected by the parliament.

Party D: Nick Xenophon's SA-Best (SAB)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Responsible, Transparent & Accountable Government; Taking Back Control of our Essential Services; Cut Waste and Re-Direct Resources into Health and Communities; Revitalise our Economy and give our Kids a Future (Source: 'Our Focus')
Responsible Government: Xenophon wants to reduce the number of MPs, Ministers and portfolios, make FOI requests easier, stronger watchdog orgnaisations and protections for whistleblowers, and introduce a wide range of restrictions on local governments while making their actions more transparent.
Essential Services: SA-Best promises to strengthen control over power prices and ensure electricity is reliable and affordable for South Australians, provide a rebate on the Emergency Services Levy for active volunteers, Reduce the ESL, and improve telephone infrastructure and coverage for remote areas to assist in emergency situations.
Health and Communities: Obviously part of thisfunting to health and communities  has to be SA-Best's position on poker machines. The party wants to put poker machines on a seven-year liscence to give small venues time to transition, then gradually phase the machines out, along with restrictions on bets, jackpots, availability of EFTPOS and the like to cut down on the amount that can be spent. Other policies include an investigation of the gender pay gap; a royal comission into the current health sector's issues; restoring hospitals, including rural hospitals, departments and services, including for mental health and paliative care, to move away from a recent centralisation of services in Adelaide; mandatory rehab for ice abuse;
Economy and Future: This party intends to give financial, practical and regulatory support to schools, parents, teachers and students to maximise the state's educational outcomes, oposses deregulation of trading hours to ensure a better deal for employees and small businesses, and encourages investment in rural and metropolitan SA.
Criticism: Perhaps because SA-Best poses a significant threat to both major parties, a lot of negative campaigns against SA-Best have been aired. A lot of these criticisms are centred around previous actions taken by Xenophon and his parties, and many are directly rebutted by the party here. More generally there is an argument that a vote for SA-Best is a vote for either Labor or the Liberals, depending on whom you ask.

Party E: Liberal Democrats (LDP)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Liberty; Prosperity (Source: 'Policy')
Liberty: The LibDems are a libertarian party; as such they oppose the criminalisation of "victimless crimes" including marijuana use, euthanasia, not wearing a bike helmet, willing prostitution, early-term abortion, etc. The party also supports a shift to voluntary voting and enrolment, citizen-initiated referenda and greater decentralisation of federal power to the states. The party also supports minimal restrictions of gun ownership, cutting of government support that encourages university students to study, supports freedom of speech and religion (including freedom to wear religious garments), allow motorcycles to use bus lanes and a review of speed limits.
Prosperity: The LibDem view of prosperity is one of free trade, privatisation of all non-essential holdings (including privitisation of hospitals, ABC, SBS, NBN, Australia Post, electricity generation, public transport, TAFE, universities and schools), a government without debt or surplus, making bank-bail-outs illegal, 0% inflation, an end to foreign aid, and nn end to minimum wage and conditions.

Criticism: Libertarians occupy an uncomfortable middleground, with left-wing social policies and right-wing economic policies (the liberty and prosperity arms of policy respectively). The criticisms, therefore, come from two directions. more conservative votors tend to see the decriminalisation of drug use, prostitution, abortion, eithanasia etc. as eroding social values and morals (and, among extreme comentators, as a form of genocide). Progressive critics tend to cite the disadvanteages particularly to poor or otherwise underprivelidged groups due to the risk of exploitation from unregulated employers and predatory behaviours from necessary services like private hospitals and educational institutions.

Party F: Advance SA (ASAP)

Policy Website: 
Policy Highlights: honesty, good judgement and fairness (Source: no concise 'short list' available, but these guiding principles are laid out as the standards against which the party will measure all decisions under their 'About' page)
Honesty: ASAP wants an audit of all government functions and services to identify areas for cuts or additional funding,
Good Judgement: The Advance SA Party wants hospital waiting lists to be made public to improve accountability, wants an education onbudsman to investigate complaints about schools, and wants control of hospitals decentralised to hospital boards to avoid government intervention and beareaucracy.
Fairness: ASAP wishes to remove the statute of limitations of child abuse which requires actions to be brought by the age of 21, provide greater protections for both tennants and landlords, and supports voluntary euthanasia.
Criticism: Advance SA has a MLC in parliament currently, John Darley, but is reasonably unknown due to Darley having been part of the Xenophon party when he was elected. As a result there is little public criticism of this party, except that Darley seperated from Xenophon due to the former's support for Labor's reforms to the legislative council.

Party G: Animal Justice Party (AJP)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Animals; Humans; Environment (Source: 'Policies'. This party also promotes the trifecta of 'Kinder * Greener * Fairer' on its South Australian page, but this is harder to divide policies between.)
Animals: The AJP advocates an end of funding for animal farming or product development and for research including animal experimentation. The AJP also opposes the use of animals in entertainment contrary to their welfare, including greyhound racing, jumps racing, recreational hunting, game fishing, rodeos, horse-drawn carriage rides, circusses, marine theme parks and zoos where the focus is on human experience rather than animal welfare as might be the case in sanctuaries and conservation parks. The party also has a list of desired regulations on pet ownership and policies regarding various native and introduced species sepcifically.
Humans: This party seeks to limit population growth, consolidate health funding at the state level to increase accountability and reduce excessive use of drugs that may lead to resistant diseases emerging. The AJP has many other policies viewed  almost obstinately from an animal perspective: Their economic/employment policies revolves around closing animal industries and reskilling those workers, thoush also advocates carers' leave bein extended to care for companion animals and encouraging wildlife tourism; Their education policy includes education about/involving animals and vegan dining options in higher education; their health and mental health platforms are largely focussed on phasing out traumatic animal industries, plant-bsed diets and animal use in therapy; and their domestic violence policy contains only one point requiring shelters to allow pets.
Environment: The AJP supports clean energy, opposes fossil fuels and natural gas extraction, advocates for the protection of animal habitats and opposes land clearing.
Criticism: Though not as prevalent in this election, the AJP has fielded some extreme positions in the past regarding government policies designed to encourage veganism and so forth (though note their policy on human diets for a continuation of the position to some extent). This rhetoric has been toned down, and most criticism now seems to focus on objections to specific policies, but it is up to the voter to decide if they think this represents a moderation of the party's views or a shift of declared policy to win votes while the original views are still held.

Party H: Liberal Party (LIB)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: More Jobs; Lower Costs; Better Services (Source: 'Policies'.)
More Jobs: The Libs have identified a range of policies they believe will produce new jobs or preserve old ones. Some of these are vague, like keeping defence jobs in SA by "working... to identify global projects being delivered by Adelaide-based primes" or producing more traineeships by "encouraging flexible apprenticeship pathways". Others, such as deregulation of business trading hours, ending payroll tax for small businesses and investing in frastructure, are far more concrete.
Lower Costs: The main cost-lowering strategy of the Liberals is a wide range of tax cuts: ending the aforementioned payroll tax for small businesses, reducing the emergency services levy and land tax, not introducing a bank tax, and capping natural resource management levies and council rates. Additionally, the party wants free screening for some volunteers, and to reduce water and power prices (again, often by vaguely described instruments).
Better Services: Many services being made "better" are in the health sector, contrasting with Labor's issues with hospital closures, the new RAH and the case of false cancer test results. These include funding the continued opperation of the Repat hospital, more cardiac services in the QEH, investment in various specialist departments and (particularly regional) hospitals, and building a new Womens' and Childrens' hospital. Other services getting investment or upgrade include the CFS, higher education (particularly TAFE) and support for soldiers and veretans.
Criticism: The main criticism I have heard of the Liberals this election is that they dont seem to stand for much except being not Labor. This is probably why there has been so much emphasis on the Strong Plan the Libs are promoting. There are definitely many concrete measures that the Liberal party is proposing; at the same time, undeniably, they are pushing for a change of government on the argument that labor has been in for 16 years and made some major mistakes in the last term regarding child safety, old age care etc.

Party I: Child Protection Party (CPP)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: The CPP is, unsurprisingly, a single-issue party. Among the many arms to its child protection policy are strict rules around adoption, but encouraging adoption as an option where parental care is not possible or inappropriate; supports same-sex adoption; encourages foster caring and an end to residential care, mandatory abuse education in schools, custody and child welfare issues to be resolved outside of the court system and all social workers should be registered. The party also supports renewable energy and reductions of Co2 emissions.
Criticism: I have not heard any criticisms of this party specifically, but it has the same limitations of all (mostly) single-issue parties--overallocation of focus on one (admittedly) important issue and no known position on other matters they will have to vote on.

Party J: Australian Conservatives (AC)

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Limited Government and Personal Responsibility; Free Enterprise; Stronger Families and Civil Society (Source: 'Our Principles'. For conciseness, these five principles have been combined into three: Small Government, Free Enterprise and Traditional Values.)
Small Government: A lot of the policies realting to reform of government and its agencies are worded specifically to opperate at the federal level, though many could be applied at a state level. These include reducing welfare payments, ending benefits to retired politicians and reducing government controlls on the markets in favour of free market principles.
Free Enterprise: The Australian Conservatives advocate for lower taxes to stimulate the economy and promote job growth, energy production to be determined by whatever method is cheapest (rather than favouring e.g. renewable/green energy for ideological reasons) and support for free markets.
Traditional Values: This party is concerend by what it sees as propaganda in schools and bias on government-funded broadcasters. The Conservatives celebrate Australia's Judeo-Christian heritage, consider traditional (i.e. heterosexual) marriage the basis of society, wants greater restrictions on imigration, and believes "Australia needs a realistic approach to the challenges of Islam."
Criticism: The criticism of the Conservatives is simple: they are too conservative. Their policies have been viewed as racist, sexist and homophobic, and suffer all the limitations and criticisms the far right has always faced. Aditionally, all of the policies considered here are designed primarily for federal politics and there are no dedicated South Australian policies available.

Party K: Australian Labor Party (ALP)

Party Website:
Policy Highlights: Jobs; Energy; Education; Health (Source: main page)
Jobs: With regards to providing jobs, the ALP intends to invest in infrastructure, green energy and power storage and fast internet both as sources of emplyment and essentials to businesses in a modern economny. They also intend to secure more jobs from interstate and overseas by attracting companies like Boeing, the Australian Shipbuilding Authority, Tesla and others from industries including defence, energy, mining, tourism, IT and future digital industries, and space technology.
Energy: Labor promises to improve cheap, reliable and green energy through its promotion of electric cars, renewable energy and its energy storage cooperation with Tesla. They also want to consolidate essential services including power to prevent privatisation.
Education: Investment in primary, secondary and teritary education forms the obvious backbone to this policy. This includes infrastructure, internet upgrades and special needs funding.
Health: Again, Labor's policy is dominated by a list of spending initiatives: mental health, preventative measures, suicide prevention, drug addiction services, and medical research are all listed for funding. Additionally, Labor is touting its 'no-jab, no-pay' policy as a win for South Australian health due to its success in boosting vaccinations.
Criticism: The main problem the ALP faces this year is winning a fifth term. There have been some major dramas including constatnt issues with the RAH, the Oakden abuse scandal and Families SA abuse scandal, and general criticisms are also levied regarding high tax rates and shrinking job opportunities. As such, many people feel Labor has been in power too long and it is time for a change.

Party L: Independent Amrik Singh Thandi (AST)

Policy Highlights: Operating out of a Facebook account makes it hard to organise detailed policies into an easily assessable format. I have not been able to identify the key policy positions of Amrik Singh Thandi, but in his only English-language video he identifies among his priorities improving Infrastructure, harsher punishments for domestic violence, better education, support for small business and local jobs, support for aged care & child care, improving housing, promoting tourism and developing the state's transport. (Source: 'video').
Criticism: Thandi's group is so little known there is little criticism available. My own personal observation is that there is very little detail about any of the groups policies and how they intend to implement them. That doesn't necessarily say much against the group, but it also makes it hard to passionately support them unless you have met or otehrwise know the candidates.

Ungrouped: Gail Kilby

Policy Website:
Policy Highlights: Detailed policy appears to be absent from Cr Kilby's site, so i will paste the most relevant section in whole here:
I stand for,
- Increasing Job Opportunities
- Equity and Fairness for all South Australians
- Improving our Health and Education System
- Sound, intelligent and practical legislation
- Honest, Transparent and accountable Decision Making
Of the three videos on her site and all of the materials on her campaign facebook, I was able to identify one policy: making education more accessable for people of all ages. No further details are available at this time.

Criticism: Normally it is hard to find much on ungrouped candidates, and even less publically against them. However the very first google result for Cr Kilby is a news story in the Advertiser (via the Southern Times Messenger) outlining a dispute between her and a fellow councillor that "has already cost ratepayers $20,000" and included allegations against Cr Kilby of sexism against a male colleague.

Ungrouped: John Milton Le Raye (Danig Party of Australia)

Party Website:
Policy Highlights: You know you have a publicity issue when a search for your name as per the ballot turns up an ad for your old car before your campaign site. According to the electoral comission, however, Le Raye is standing for the Danig party, so I am running with that. Their policy PDF outlines 16 principles, but there is no convenient means of selecting those they would want highlighted. I normally try to keep the key points to 3 or 4 but with these 16 I've decided to do a quick-fire summary:
Unemployed people should be conscripted; government should adequately support people with disabilities; eating Australian food should be incentivised; better education would be better; stronger courts, police and firefighters (some of whom should be run by the air force); compulsory pre-marital counseling; renewable energy ASAP; end logging old-growth forrests; no government debt; Australian farms should be immune to bank forclosure; Super should be paid to the government and pensions paid instead; Greater protections for (unsecured) creditors; register of bad tennants; immigration is ok; illegal immigration is not ok; review driving fines and give free driver training.
Criticism: Couldn't find any public criticism of Mr Le Raye or the Danig Party. That said, there are many vocal opponents of compulsory military service, renewable energy or large-scale immigration.

Ungrouped: Luke Koumi

Some forum in which the candidate, or someone claiming to be him, appears to post:
Policy Highlights: Right at the bottom of the list and finding policy information is getting REALLY tough. The link above includes posts from Paintedponies who sometimes appears to be writing as though (s)he is the candidate and sometimes as though (s)he is a supporter by referring to Mr Koumi in the third person. I hate to rely on such an unreliable source, but it's all I have and it still offers no insight into policies beyond the fact that a vote for Luke Koumi (running for 'Racing means Jobs') is a vote for the horse racing industry generally and for jumps racing specifically.
Criticism: Assuming Paintedponies is Mr Koumi (and I cannot caviat that enough) then the most damming criticism of this candidate I could find was written by the candidate himself. Here is his comment, straight from the ... horses mouth:
I once had a heated discussion with a borderline morbidly obese lady who tried to tell me horseracing was cruel. After I’d exhausted all my arguments to say that it’s not..I finally told her that her allowing her children to suffer as overweight young humans was what was really cruel. She didn’t talk to me anymore after that 😅.

Legislative Assembly (Lower House)

How to Vote: In the Legislative Assembly, every box must be numbered with '1' being the first ppreference. There are 47 electorates, each with a different set of candidates running. Find your electorate below to see what candidates you can vote for. Partes without links have their policies outlined above fore the Legislative Council; others link to the best source I have for the candidate--it is too labour intensive to write out policy sumaries for each and many links (those marked *) have little to no useful information. Unless you live in the seat of Mount Gambier there will be at most one link to follow (and most are generally very brief).


1 PRICE, Betty-Jean Dignity Party Inc
2 SIMMS, Robert The Greens
3 CHAPLEY, Jo Australian Labor Party
4 SANDERSON, Rachel Liberal Party


1 BICKFORD, Kate Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 CLYNE, Lachlan Liberal Party
3 STINSON, Jayne Australian Labor Party
4 DURKIN, Lily Dignity Party Inc
5 WOODWARD, John Independent Practical Experienced
6 ROZITIS, Stef The Greens
7 MUNRO, Robyn Australian Conservatives


1 WILSON, Randall Australian Labor Party
2 ZSCHECH, Lionel Australian Conservatives
3 de JONGE, Rob Independent South Australia Better*
4 BARNES, Dami The Greens
5 SVETLICHNY, Anastasia Dignity Party Inc
6 SPEIRS, David Liberal Party


1 ZWAANS, Neil The Greens
2 SARRE, Rick Australian Labor Party
3 CHAPMAN, Vickie Liberal Party
4 NEAGLE, Taylah Dignity Party Inc


1 CAMPBELL, Michelle Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 CHALLIS, Richard Dignity Party Inc
3 WHETSTONE, Tim Liberal Party
4 POINTER, Philip The Greens
5 SCOTT, Trevor Australian Conservatives
6 SINGH-MALHI, Sim Australian Labor Party


1 WEATHERILL, Jay Australian Labor Party
2 MEDROW, Steffi The Greens
3 SCALI, Vincent Independent Hadd Enuf*
4 PRATT, Penny Liberal Party
5 NOONAN, John Anthony Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
6 McCAUL, Madeline Dignity Party Inc


1 PETHERICK, Paul The Greens
2 WOOD, Jassmine Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
3 COWDREY, Matt Liberal Party
4 EVANS, Ted Dignity Party Inc
5 VAUGHAN, Angela Australian Labor Party


1 HAMMERSTEIN, Millie Animal Justice Party
2 HEXTELL, Daria Liberal Party
3 MALINAUSKAS, Peter Australian Labor Party
4 LESIW, Michael Independent*
5 LANGE, Nathan The Greens
6 McGINLEY, Lucy Dignity Party Inc
7 KARPATHAKIS, Julia Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
8 RUNNER, Rachael Australian Conservatives
9 GESTI, Gabor Danig Party of Australia (See John Milton Le Raye)


1 PHOTAKIS, John The Greens
2 GOLDING, Dan Independent*
3 HOCKLEY, Karen Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
4 MURRAY, Steve Liberal Party
5 THORSTEINSEN, Jonette Australian Labor Party


1 MARSHALL, Steven Liberal Party
2 NOONAN, Jack Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
3 DE KOK, Harriet The Greens
4 LOADER, Matt Australian Labor Party
5 WILSON, Ben Dignity Party Inc


1 HABIB, Carolyn Liberal Party
2 SLATTERY, Michael Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
3 VAN GROESEN, Shawn Australian Conservatives
4 DIGANCE, Annabel Australian Labor Party
5 SCHUMI, Nick Dignity Party Inc
6 MOATE, Jody The Greens


1 ODENWALDER, Lee Australian Labor Party
2 MATHIESEN, John Australian Conservatives
3 BYRNE, Sharka Liberal Party
4 GALLASCH, Phil Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 MORGAN, Wendy The Greens


1 ALVEY, Cassie The Greens
2 EDMONDS, Steve Australian Conservatives
3 CRESDEE, Emma Dignity Party Inc
4 MATHEW, Deepa Liberal Party
5 MARTIN, Carol Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
6 RAU, John Australian Labor Party


1 SKINNER, Russell Australian Labor Party
2 MULLETTE, Marc The Greens
3 HILL, Joe Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
4 HICKS, Bruce Australian Conservatives
5 BASHAM, David Liberal Party


1 DUDLEY, Ian The Greens
2 TRELOAR, Peter Liberal Party
3 WATSON, Julie Australian Labor Party
4 PARKER, Tony Australian Conservatives


1 BEDFORD, Frances Independent Community Counts
2 GATT, Adam The Greens
3 WAECHTER, Suzi Dignity Party Inc
4 MORRIS, Rik Australian Labor Party
5 PEAKE, John Australian Conservatives
6 SHARMA, Gagan Liberal Party
7 RUSSELL, Geoff Animal Justice Party


1 BIRKWOOD, Paul The Greens
2 BROCK, Geoff Independent
3 JACKSON, Kendall Liberal Party
4 CONNOR, Cat Dignity Party Inc
5 ELLIOT, Annette Australian Labor Party


1 HANNA, Kris Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 CAREY, Matthew Australian Labor Party
3 CONNOR, Garry Dignity Party Inc
4 ROZITISOLDS, Gwydion The Greens
5 WINGARD, Corey Liberal Party


1 TAYLOR, Anna The Greens
2 WESTERMAN, Cyanne Dignity Party Inc
3 KAMINSKI, Cheryl Australian Conservatives
4 HUGHES, Eddie Australian Labor Party
5 WALSH, Mark Liberal Party
6 ANTONIO, Tom Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST


1 HOPE, Simon The Greens
2 PEDERICK, Adrian Liberal Party
3 O'BRIEN, Mat Australian Labor Party
4 GLADIGAU, Kelly Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 PATON, Declan Australian Conservatives


1 RYAN, Marijka Independent Voice in Hartley
2 JACKSON, Bob Australian Conservatives
3 PORTOLESI, Grace Australian Labor Party
4 NEAGLE, Rick Dignity Party Inc
5 TARZIA, Vincent Liberal Party
6 ZWAANS, Lauren The Greens
7 XENOPHON, Nick Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST


1 STEVENSON, Lynette Australian Conservatives
2 WEBB, Tony Australian Labor Party
3 VONOW, Lynton The Greens
4 ILLINGWORTH, John Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 TEAGUE, Josh Liberal Party
6 EY, Andrew Dignity Party Inc

Hurtle Vale       

1 CRESDEE, Donovan Dignity Party Inc
2 DUFF, Aaron Liberal Party
3 COOK, Nat Australian Labor Party
4 O'BRIEN, Michael Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 MALCOLM, Bruce Australian Conservatives
6 MORTIER, Nikki The Greens


1 McMAHON, Simon Liberal Party
3 PICTON, Chris Australian Labor Party


1 GROSSER, Ian The Greens
2 DALLIMORE, Glen Australian Labor Party
3 STRATFORD, Andrew Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
4 HOLLOW, Howard Australian Conservatives
5 RODERT, Cristina Dignity Party Inc
6 PFEIFFER, Louise Animal Justice Party
7 CREGAN, Dan Liberal Party


1 ADAMS, Damon The Greens
2 ROSITANO, Giles Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
3 BALFORT, Gary Australian Conservatives
4 DUNCAN, Julie Australian Labor Party
5 LUETHEN, Paula Liberal Party


1 JESSOP, Vicki Australian Conservatives
2 KERPELIS, Aristidis Danig Party of Australia (See John Milton Le Raye)
3 RYPP, Steven Liberal Party
4 LEGRAND, Andy Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 MULLIGHAN, Stephen Australian Labor Party
6 LITTLER, Tiffany Dignity Party Inc
7 O'SULLIVAN, Patrick The Greens


1 TEUSNER, Carl Australian Conservatives
2 McCOLL, Karen Liberal Party
3 PICCOLO, Tony Australian Labor Party
4 GREEN, Felicity The Greens


1 HILL, Tracy Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 BATEMAN, Richard Australian Conservatives
3 EY, Jon Independent*
4 WIGG, Hilary Australian Labor Party
5 McBRIDE, Nick Liberal Party
6 PETERS, Donella The Greens


1 WAINWRIGHT, Hazel Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 HARRISON, Ami-Louise The Greens
3 GREAVES, Heidi Australian Conservatives
4 GILFILLAN, Andy Liberal Party
5 BIGNELL, Leon Australian Labor Party


1 FARROW, Tim Dignity Party Inc
2 GARDNER, John Liberal Party
3 FIELD, Peter Australian Labor Party
4 SMITH, Matt Australian Conservatives
5 ROBERTS-THOMSON, Simon The Greens
6 SADLER, James Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
7 SMYTHE, Peter Independent Australian Democrats


1 SIEBENTRITT, Mark Australian Labor Party
2 KWAN, Monica Dignity Party Inc
3 JONES, Simon Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
4 McFETRIDGE, Duncan Independent
5 CRABBE, Chris The Greens
6 PATTERSON, Stephen Liberal Party

Mount Gambier       

1 AMOROSO, Kate Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 JONES, Lance Dignity Party Inc
3 BELL, Troy Independent
4 BISSET, Gregg Australian Conservatives
5 SCRIVEN, Isabel Australian Labor Party
6 MARSH, Craig Liberal Party
7 CLARKE, Gavin The Greens
8 SAGE, Richard Independent*


1 HEWETT, Rebecca Australian Conservatives
2 MILERA, Douglas Australian Labor Party
3 SWALES, Jason The Greens
4 ELLIS, Fraser Liberal Party
5 DAVIES, Sam Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST


1 STEWART, Stephanie The Greens
2 LEEDHAM, Martin Australian Conservatives
3 BAILEY, Shane Independent*
4 HARVEY, Richard Liberal Party
5 VASAN, Rajini Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
6 WILLIAMS, Sandra Dignity Party Inc
7 KENYON, Tom Australian Labor Party


1 SZUTY, Helen Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 SHEORAN, Shane Australian Conservatives
3 LE CERF, Brock The Greens
4 BROWN, Michael Australian Labor Party
5 DAVE, Hemant Liberal Party

Port Adelaide       

1 TINGEY, Bryan Dignity Party Inc
2 HANCOCK, Nicholas Animal Justice Party
3 JOHANSON, Gary Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
4 McLAREN, Chad Liberal Party
5 MOORS, Danica The Greens
6 MATTHEWS, Peter Danig Party of Australia (See John Milton Le Raye)
7 CLOSE, Susan Australian Labor Party
8 HAMBOUR, Bruce Australian Conservatives


1 ALDRIDGE, Mark Independent Representing You
2 FERRIS, Brett The Greens
3 CHARLES, Nick Liberal Party
4 IALEGGIO, Domenico Australian Conservatives
5 BETTISON, Zoe Australian Labor Party
6 GEORGE, Tarnia Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST


1 TREE, Anna Dignity Party Inc
2 HILDYARD, Katrine Australian Labor Party
3 CURRAN, Laura Liberal Party
4 MAUSOLF, Joanne Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 JURY, Daniel The Greens
6 SIRES, David Australian Conservatives


1 HAEBICH, David Australian Labor Party
2 BROWN, Paul Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
3 IRVING, Dave The Greens
4 KNOLL, Stephan Liberal Party
5 LAMBERT, Rikki Australian Conservatives


1 FITZGERALD, Brendan The Greens
2 van HOLST PELLEKAAN, Dan Liberal Party
3 THOMAS, Khatija Australian Labor Party


1 TAYLOR, Sonja Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
2 RANDELL, Kate The Greens
3 BRADLEY, Danny Australian Conservatives
4 SHARMA, Sarika Liberal Party
5 GEE, Jon Australian Labor Party


1 DUTHIE, John Dignity Party Inc
2 WORTLEY, Dana Australian Labor Party
3 KENNY, Therese Liberal Party
4 DINOVITSER, Alex The Greens


1 PISONI, David Liberal Party
2 PHILLIPS, Geoff Australian Labor Party
3 WISHART, John The Greens
4 OLIVIER, Anthony Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 CENTRELLA, Dario Stop Population Growth Now
6 WATKINS, Anne Dignity Party Inc


1 TUCKER, Cathi Dignity Party Inc
2 DUNCAN, John Australian Conservatives
3 HUTCHESSON, Cathy Australian Labor Party
4 DAVIES, Graham Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 DULUK, Sam Liberal Party
6 WHITE, Brendan The Greens

West Torrens       

1 BEDDALL, Phillip Dignity Party Inc
2 FORZA, Livio The Greens
3 KOUTSANTONIS, Tom Australian Labor Party
4 DIMAS, Josh Danig Party of Australia (See John Milton Le Raye)
5 CRUZ, Helika Liberal Party


1 BOYER, Blair Australian Labor Party
2 MESISCA, Luigi Liberal Party
3 HARNESS, Jennifer The Greens
4 HENNINGSEN, Natasha Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST
5 DENNIS, Eric Australian Conservatives